桑树断梢病流行的BOX-JENKINS模型及其在预测中的应用研究  

STUDIES ON THE APPLICATION OF BOX-JENKINS MODEL OF MULBERRY SHOOT BREAK DISEASE EPIDEMICS AND FORECAST

作　　者：赵萍[1] 夏庆友[1] 谈廷桂[1] 

机构地区：[1]四川省农业科学院蚕桑研究所

出　　处：《蚕业科学》1993年第1期14-18,共5页ACTA SERICOLOGICA SINICA

摘　　要：利用Box-Jenkins模型,对桑树白椹和断梢病的流行发生分别进行了摸拟,得到两个回报准确率为100％,预报准确率分别为91.49％和82.77％的数学模型。根据植物病虫害流行原理,从寄主、病原物和环境条件方面讨论了Box-Jenkins模型在蚕桑病虫害流行研究上应用的可行性。Based on Box-Jenkins model, the epidemics of mulberry white fruit and mulberry shoot break disease were simulated. Two epidemics models were fitted respectively. The average degree of accuracy of fitting tests for both models was 100 per cent. The accuracy of forecasting was 91. 49 per cent and 82- 77 per cent respectively. According to the principles of plant disease epidemics, the relationship among host, pathogen and environmental factors, the possibility of applying the Box-Jenkins model to mulberry and silkworm disease epidemics was discussed.

关 键 词：桑树 断梢病 预测 

分 类 号：S888.719[农业科学—特种经济动物饲养]