MARKAL模型在北京中远期能源发展研究中的应用  

Application of MARKAL Model for Study on Beijing’s Energy Development in Mid-& Long term

作　　者：佟庆[1] 白泉[2] 刘滨[1] 吕应运[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学核能与新能源技术研究院,北京100084 [2]清华大学能源研究所,北京100038

出　　处：《中国能源》2004年第6期36-40,共5页Energy of China

摘　　要：MARKAL模型是一个综合能源系统优化模型,在满足给定的能源需求量和污染物排放量限制条件下,确定出使能源系统成本最小化的一次能源供应结构和用能技术结构。本文尝试将MARKAL模型应用于北京市中远期能源系统建设研究,根据北京市未来能源、经济、环境协调发展的要求,进行了几种可能的未来能源系统发展情景分析。研究结果表明,适当安排大气环境质量改善进程可以明显减少清洁能源系统建设成本,而且不影响大气环境质量改善的总体效果。MARKAL Model is a comprehensive energy system optimization model, which calculates the primary energy supply mix and energy utilization technologies under the minimized cost of energy system, while satisfying the condition of given energy demand and pollution constrain. This article tries to use MARKAL model to make the study on the mid &long term energy system construction for Beijing municipal. Based on the requirements of harmonized development among energy, economy, and environment of Beijing, it analyzes the possibilities for scenarios of energy system development in the future. The results show that if the procedures for the atmospheric quality control can be properly made, the cost of clean energy system construction cost can be reduced obviously, with getting same overall environmental benefits.

关 键 词：MARKAL模型 能源系统 北京市 中远期 情景分析 

分 类 号：F426.2[经济管理—产业经济]