“一带一路”背景下新疆经济发展影响因素研究  

Research on the Influencing Factors of Xinjiang’s Economic Development under the Background of “One Belt and One Road”

作　　者：赵玉宁 张泽薇 徐加波[2] 陈星[2] 

机构地区：[1]新疆财经大学应用数学学院,新疆乌鲁木齐 [2]新疆工程学院基础部,新疆乌鲁木齐

出　　处：《应用数学进展》2018年第11期1429-1439,共11页Advances in Applied Mathematics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(No. 11301452).

摘　　要：“一带一路”战略的提出,新疆发挥独特的区位优势和向西开放重要窗口作用,形成丝绸之路经济带上重要的交通枢纽、商贸物流和文化科教中心,打造丝绸之路经济带核心区,为新疆的经济发展注入新的内涵与活力。本文在基于前文主成分分析结果的基础上,建立VAR模型,用脉冲响应分析和方差分解分析的方法,通过建立VAR模型,对筛选出来影响经济发展的主要因素进行短期动态分析运用脉冲相应分析和方差分析对各个变量进行冲击扰动的动态反应和各个变量对就业扰动的贡献率,得到新疆经济发展的影响因素及影响趋势。With the proposal of the “One Belt and One Road” strategy, Xinjiang will play a unique role in geo-graphical advantages and an important window to the west opening. It will form an important transportation hub, trade logistics and cultural science and education center on the Silk Road Economic Belt, and create a core area of the Silk Road economic belt, which will inject new conno-tation and vitality into Xinjiang’s economic development. Based on the results of the previous principal component analysis, this paper establishes the VAR model. By using impulse response analysis and variance decomposition analysis, the paper establishes the VAR model, carries out short-term dynamic analysis of the main factors that affect the economic development, and uses impulse corresponding analysis and variance analysis to make impact disturbance on each variable. The dynamic response and the contribution rate of each variable to employment disturbance are obtained, and the influencing factors and influencing trends of Xinjiang’s economic development are obtained.

关 键 词：一带一路 VAR模型 方差分析 脉冲响应分析 

分 类 号：F2[经济管理—国民经济]