上海市城镇养老保险人口预测分析——基于灰色GM(1,1)模型  

The Population Forecast Analysis of Urban Pension Insurance in Shanghai—Based on the Gray GM(1,1) Model

作　　者：常玉奇 

机构地区：[1]上海工程技术大学管理学院,上海

出　　处：《应用数学进展》2021年第10期3539-3547,共9页Advances in Applied Mathematics

摘　　要：运用Excel软件建立GM(1,1)模型,对上海市2011~2018年城镇职工养老保险参保人员进行预测分析,预测未来到21世纪中叶上海市城镇职工养老将要保险的参保人数,为上海市养老保险机构提供参考。文章将采用灰色GM(1,1)预测模型,对未来上海市城镇参与养老保险的人口进行预测,预估上海市未来城镇老年人口的变化趋势,为政府在制定未来发展规划城提供参考,人口的预测对将来养老保险基金收支的可持续性预算具有非常重要的意义。Using Excel software to establish the GM(1,1) model, the forecast analysis of urban workers’ old- age insurance insured persons in Shanghai from 2011 to 2018 is carried out, and the number of insured persons of urban workers’ old-age insurance in Shanghai that will be insured in the middle of the 21st century is forecasted, which provides reference for Shanghai old-age insurance institutions. This paper will use the gray GM(1,1) forecast model to forecast the population of the future urban pension insurance in Shanghai, estimate the changing trend of the urban elderly population in Shanghai in the future, and provide reference for the government to formulate the future development plan city, and the population forecast is of great significance to the sustainable budget of the pension fund income and expenditure in the future.

关 键 词：灰色系统 GM(1 1) 养老保险 预测 人口 

分 类 号：TP3[自动化与计算机技术—计算机科学与技术]