基于灰色预测模型研究延迟退休政策的必要性  

Researching the Necessity of Delayed Retirement Policy Based on Grey Model

作　　者：陈歆宇 王垚 王安迪 王天园 

机构地区：[1]沈阳航空航天大学,理学院,辽宁 沈阳

出　　处：《应用数学进展》2022年第3期1345-1354,共10页Advances in Applied Mathematics

摘　　要：随着社会的发展,人口老龄化进程加快引发的社会问题日益凸显。因此,为缓解人口老龄化带来的消极影响,实行延迟退休政策是必然选择。本文基于2010年~2019年的统计数据,建立GM (1, 1)灰色预测模型对2020年~2029年各个年龄段的人口进行预测。研究发现2020年~2029年65岁及以上的常住人口数的增幅大于另两个年龄段的常住人口数增幅之和,且总抚养比持续上升,单位劳动年龄人口需负担的非劳动年龄人口不断增加,适龄劳动人数占总常住人口的比例逐年下降,人口中适龄劳动资源匮乏,我国的人口红利优势即将消失。同时,养老金赤字日益加剧,为缓解这些问题,实施延迟退休政策迫在眉睫。除此之外,本文建立差分方程模型,求解出实施延迟退休政策后我国保险公司每月投资收益率下限。With the development of society, the social problems caused by the accelerated aging of population are increasingly prominent. Therefore, in order to alleviate the negative impact of population aging, the implementation of delayed retirement policy is an inevitable choice. Based on the statistical data from 2010 to 2019, this paper established GM (1, 1) grey models to predict the population of all ages from 2020 to 2029. Study found that the growth of resident population aged 65 and above 65, in 2020~2029, is greater than the sum of the other two ages resident population growth. The total dependency ratio continues to rise at the same time. The non-working age population that unit working population needs to burden is increasing. The proportion of the working-age population in the total permanent population is decreasing year by year, and working-age resources are scarce among the population. Therefore, Chinese demographic dividend advantage will soon disappear. At the same time, the pension deficit is increasing. In order to alleviate these problems, it is urgent to implement the delayed retirement policy. In addition, this paper establishes a difference equation model to solve the lower limit of monthly investment return rate of Chinese insurance companies after the implementation of delayed retirement policy.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 延迟退休 灰色预测模型 年龄结构 总抚养比 适龄劳动资源 人口红利 养老金赤字 差分方程模型 投资收益率下限 

分 类 号：C924.24[社会学—人口学]