第三产业对GDP贡献率预测分析——基于GM(1, 1)模型  

Third Industry’s Contribution and Analysis of GDP Contribution Rate—Based GM(1, 1) Model

作　　者：梁超 

机构地区：[1]上海工程技术大学,上海

出　　处：《应用数学进展》2022年第7期4973-4978,共6页Advances in Applied Mathematics

摘　　要：近年来,第三产业占GDP比重不断上升,第三产业逐步替代第一、二产业成为主导产业。2012年前,第二产业对GDP贡献率最高,2012年后,第三产业对GDP贡献率逐年升高,超过一、二产业对GDP的贡献率。第三产业发展与GDP之间呈显著的正相关,第三产业每增加1%,GDP增加0.803%,我国第三产业占国民经济的比重从2010年的39%上升到2019年的59.4%,第三产业对于经济发展具有重大促进作用。实证结果表明,在国民经济构成中,第三产业对GDP贡献率逐渐递增,发展迅速,经济结构逐渐优化,本文通过分析第三产业贡献率预测结果,提出大力发展现代服务业,增加第三产业资金和技术投入,加强相关人才培养等建议,为促进现代服务业进一步发展提供借鉴。In recent years, the proportion of tertiary industries has risen, and the tertiary industry has gradu-ally replaced the first. The secondary industry has become a leading industry. Before 2012, the second industry contributed the highest contribution to GDP. After 2012, the contribution rate of the tertiary industry to GDP increased year by year, exceeding the contribution of the one and sec-ond industry to GDP. The development of the tertiary industry is significantly positively correlated with GDP. For each increase of 1% in the tertiary industry, the GDP increases by 0.803%. The pro-portion of my country’s tertiary industry accounts for 39% in 2010 to 59.4% in 2019. The tertiary industry has a significant role in promoting economic development. The empirical results show that among the composition of the national economy, the contribution rate of the tertiary industry to GDP has gradually increased, developed rapidly, and the economic structure gradually optimized. This article analyzes the prediction results of the contribution rate of the tertiary industry, and proposes to vigorously develop modern service industries to increase the tertiary industry. Sugges-tions such as funding and technical investment provide reference to the further development of the modern service industry.

关 键 词：灰色预测 第三产业 GDP贡献率 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]