基于灰色预测模型的2020~2029年甘肃省人口预测研究  

Research on the Population Forecast of Gan-su Province from 2020 to 2029 Based on Grey Prediction Model

作　　者：李远哲 

机构地区：[1]上海工程技术大学管理学院,上海

出　　处：《应用数学进展》2022年第11期8018-8025,共8页Advances in Applied Mathematics

摘　　要：第七次人口普查呈现出了性别比失衡、抚养比上升的现状,基于2011~2020年《甘肃统计年鉴》数据,使用GM(1,1)预测模型对于甘肃在2020~2029年的人口变动趋势进行预测。在基于对总人口的灰色预测模型基础上,从性别构成、年龄构成两个角度对于甘肃人口变动进行进一步预测。结果表明,甘肃省人口在未来可能保持增长的同时,劳动人口的流失与老龄化问题并存,本地劳动人口负担或将加重,但同时性别比趋于平衡。本文建议政府应当从产业政策出发吸引本地人口在本地居住以减少本地劳动人口负担,加快城市无障碍改造,积极扩展养老托育事业,多角度减轻劳动人口面临的养老、子女问题。The seventh population census showed the status of an unbalanced sex ratio and a rising depend-ency ratio. Based on the data of the Gansu Statistical Yearbook from 2011 to 2020, GM(1,1) predic-tion model was used to predict the population change trend of Gansu in 2020~2029. Based on the grey prediction model of the total population, the population change in Gansu is further predicted from the perspectives of gender composition and age composition. The results show that while the population of Gansu Province may keep growing in the future, the outflow of the working population and the aging problem coexist, and the burden of the local working population may increase, but at the same time, the gender ratio tends to balance. This paper suggests that the government should attract the local population to live in the local area from the perspective of industrial policy to re-duce the burden of the local working population, speed up the barrier free transformation of the city, actively expand the elderly care and childcare undertakings, and reduce the pension and chil-dren problems faced by the working population from multiple perspectives.

关 键 词：人口负担 老龄化问题 抚养比 人口预测 灰色预测模型 甘肃人口 性别比失衡 性别构成 

分 类 号：C924.2[社会学—人口学]