基于GM(1,1)模型下的安徽省年度卫生系统总支出费用增长变化与趋势的预测模型分析  

Analysis of the Change and Trend of Annual Total Expenditure in Anhui Province Based on GM (1,1) Model

作　　者：王香 

机构地区：[1]上海工程技术大学管理学院

出　　处：《应用数学进展》2023年第1期132-138,共7页Advances in Applied Mathematics

摘　　要：卫生单位总费用如何作为衡量评价每一个经济国家单位或该地区财政卫生资金投入效益水平状况和社会资金实际利用能力状况如何的一重要衡量指标,了解研究其在未来可能发展与趋势,不仅还可以体现为政府部门怎样控制其卫生机构总费用支出的有效合理分配支出,还将可以为政府部门科学制定其医疗卫生政策规划提供了一定好的研究借鉴材料和参考。目的:分析安徽省年度卫生医疗费用变化及结构变动情况,为科学合理控制医疗费用增长提供决策依据。对中国卫生部安徽省资助项目的2020年底~2026年未来阶段第7年期全国的卫生机构医疗设施总经费投入与费用结构变化趋势及费用规模及其构成及其变化趋势的国内实际支出变化过程及分布情况变化趋势等数据进行科学定量与科学半定量跟踪预测。方法:基于世界银行项目安徽市研究中的2013年末~2019年春节期间卫生总费用支出增长率及其增长水平所占当年我国GDP总量增长水平比重等估算中的相关经济分析的数据构建灰色GM(1,1)预测模型。结果:模型参数的估算精确度一般均应达到96%以上,模型计算的经济精度亦一般较高。2020年以后~第2026年,安徽省卫生总费用的交易额预计将是继续的从目前的2477.59亿元逐步地增加发展到4649.66亿元,年均增长率为11.06%,卫生总费用占GDP的比重从2020年的6.02%下降到2026年的5.45%,年平均增长率为−1.64%。结论:安徽省卫生总费用将继续稳步增长;安徽省卫生总费用占GDP比重将逐年下降;安徽省相关部门应根据实际情况促进卫生总费用的合理增长,使安徽省卫生总费用的投入水平与经济发展水平恰当匹配,并尽量与各国居民共同的实际医疗及卫生资源需求能力相适应。卫生系统总费用额是指某一个卫生国家或某个地区在任何一定经济时期限内(通常是一年),每年用于发展医疗卫生Health unit total cost as a measure of each economic country unit or the regional financial health funds into benefit level and the actual utilization ability of an important measure, understand the research in the future development and trend, not only can be reflected for the government de-partments how to control the health institutions total expenditure effective distribution of ex-penditure, will also be used for the government departments to formulate the medical and health policy planning provides a good research reference material and reference. Objective: To analyze the annual changes and structural changes of health and medical expenses in Anhui Province and provide decision basis for scientific and reasonable control of the growth of medical expenses. For China’s ministry of health in Anhui province at the end of 2020 to 2026 in the future stage 7 nation-al health institutions medical facilities total funds investment and cost structure trend and cost scale and its composition trend of domestic actual spending change process and distribution trend of data such as scientific quantitative and scientific semi-quantitative tracking forecast. Methods: The grey GM (1,1) prediction model was constructed based on the data from the estimation of the relevant economic analysis in the study of Anhui City of the World Bank project. Results: The esti-mation accuracy of model parameters should generally be more than 96%, and the economic accu-racy of model calculation is generally high. From 2020 to 2026, the transaction volume of total health expenditure in Anhui Province is expected to continue to increase from the current 247.759 billion yuan to 464.966 billion yuan, with an average annual growth rate of 11.06%. The proportion of total health expenditure in GDP will decrease from 6.02% in 2020 to 5.45% in 2026, with an av-erage annual growth rate of-1.64%. Conclusion: The total health cost of Anhui Province will continue to increase steadily;the proportion of the total health cost in GDP will decrease year by y

关 键 词：灰色GM(1 1)模型 卫生总费用 

分 类 号：R19[医药卫生—卫生事业管理] O29[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]