我国人口老龄化对东北地区旅游业发展的影响实证分析与预测  

Empirical Analysis and Prediction of the Impact of Population Aging in China on the Development of Tourism in Northeast China

作　　者：单子烁 王汇钧 陈阳 华成威 刘杰夫 王莉 

机构地区：[1]沈阳航空航天大学理学院,辽宁 沈阳 [2]沈阳航空航天大学机电工程学院,辽宁 沈阳

出　　处：《应用数学进展》2024年第10期4471-4477,共7页Advances in Applied Mathematics

摘　　要：在人口老龄化程度日益加剧的今天,中国人口老龄化不是面临“高峰”,而是将面对“高原”。寻求人口老龄化与发展之间的平衡已经成为如今最该解决的问题。在振兴东北的大背景下,旅游业作为东北地区发展的重要产业,越来越受到政府的关注。本文从全国人口老龄化对东北地区的旅游业发展的影响的角度出发,首先确认分析的解释变量,其中全国人口老龄化水平为核心解释变量,城镇化率、经济增长率、产业结构和政府干预程度为控制变量;然后对数据进行平稳性检验,通过Spearman相关性分析和建立基准回归模型对全国人口老龄化对东北地区旅游业发展水平的影响进行分析并建立预测模型。最后得到较为合理的结果。In today’s increasing population aging, China’s population aging is not facing a “peak”, but will face a “plateau”. Seeking a balance between population aging and development has become the most urgent problem that needs to be solved. Under the background of the revitalization of Northeast China, tourism, as an important industry in the development of Northeast China, has been paid more and more attention by the government. From the perspective of the impact of national population aging on tourism development in Northeast China, firstly this paper confirms the explanatory variables of the analysis, in which the national population aging level is the core explanatory variable, and the urbanization rate, economic growth rate, industrial structure and government intervention degree are the control variables. Then, the data is subjected to stability testing, and the impact of national population aging on the development level of tourism in Northeast China is analyzed through Spearman correlation analysis and the establishment of a benchmark regression model, resulting in a predictive model. Ultimately, this leads to reasonably satisfactory results.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 ADF检验 Spearman相关性分析 基准回归模型 

分 类 号：F59[经济管理—旅游管理]