基于EEMD-LSTM-WOA的风速预测混合模型  

A Hybrid Prediction Model Based on EEMD-LSTM-WOA for Wind Speed Prediction

作　　者：何厚桦 王仲平 崔萌 

机构地区：[1]兰州交通大学数理学院,甘肃 兰州

出　　处：《应用数学进展》2024年第10期4486-4497,共12页Advances in Applied Mathematics

摘　　要：风能因其安全、可再生、环保等显著优势而受到世界各国的重视,为了准确预测风速时间序列,本文使用宁夏回族自治区麻黄山共17,376条风速数据,提出了一种基于集合经验模态分解(EEMD)、长短期记忆网络(LSTM)、鲸鱼优化算法(WOA)组成的混合风速预测模型,并且与BP神经网络、CEEMDAN-LSTM-PSO (完全集合经验模态分解–长短期记忆网络–粒子群优化算法)、EMD-LSTM-RIME (经验模态分解–长短期记忆网络–霜冰优化算法)等模型进行对比实验,结果表明本文提出的EEMD-LSTM-WOA模型有着更稳定、更准确的预测性能。之后对EEMD-LSTM-WOA模型进行消融试验,结果显示去掉EEMD分解后,RMSE和MAPE分别增加了203.97%和187.47%,表明EEMD极大提升了整个模型的准确性和稳定性;去掉鲸鱼优化算法后,模型的RMSE和MAPE分别增加了78.34%和74.93%,说明最优化方法对整个模型的准确性和稳定性也有较大的促进作用。Wind energy has garnered global attention due to its notable advantages, including safety, renewability, and environmental friendliness. To accurately predict wind speed time series, this paper utilizes 17,376 wind speed data points from Ma Huang Mountain in the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region. We propose a hybrid wind speed prediction model that combines ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), long short-term memory network (LSTM), and whale optimization algorithm (WOA). Comparative experiments were conducted with models such as BP neural network, CEEMDAN-LSTM-PSO (complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition-long short-term memory network-particle swarm optimization), and EMD-LSTM-RIME (empirical mode decomposition-long short-term memory network-Rimoglio optimization algorithm). The results indicate that our proposed EEMD-LSTM-WOA model exhibits more stable and accurate prediction performance. Subsequently, ablation experiments were performed on the EEMD-LSTM-WOA model. The findings revealed that upon removing EEMD d

关 键 词：风速预测 混合预测模型 集合经验模态分解 长短期记忆网络 鲸鱼优化算法 

分 类 号：TP3[自动化与计算机技术—计算机科学与技术]