基于“奥肯定律”的经济增长与就业增长的实证研究  

An Empirical Research on Economic Growth and Employment Growth Based on the “Okun’s Law”

作　　者：李紫璇 

机构地区：[1]重庆大学公共管理学院,重庆

出　　处：《社会科学前沿》2023年第9期5489-5498,共10页Advances in Social Sciences

摘　　要：改革开放以来,我国经济保持较快的增长速度,但是就业问题也越来越突出。奥肯定律认为,失业率与国内生产总值增长率二者呈反方向变化的关系。然而,中国的经济增长并没有带来相应的就业增长,即奥肯定律在中国出现了变异。本文选用中国1978~2019年42个年份的样本数据,通过协整检验和Granger因果检验,得出经济增长与就业增长不一致的结果,并尝试解释二者具有不一致性的原因,结合实际国情就如何促进我国就业增长提出政策建议。Since the reform and opening up, China’s economy has maintained a relatively fast growth rate, but the problem of employment is also becoming more and more prominent. According to Okun’s law, the relationship between the unemployment rate and the growth rate of GDP changes in the opposite direction. However, China’s economic growth does not bring the corresponding employment growth, that is, Okun’s law in China has mutated. By using the sample data of 42 years span (1978~2019) in China, this paper obtains the inconsistent results of economic growth and employment growth through cointegration test and Granger causality test, attempts to explain the reasons for their inconsistency, and puts forward some policy suggestions on promoting employment growth in China based on China’s actual situation.

关 键 词：奥肯定律 经济增长 就业增长 非一致性 

分 类 号：G64[文化科学—高等教育学]