1951~2010年湛江市平均气温变化特征分析  

Characteristics of Mean Surface Air Temperature Variation in Zhanjiang during 1951-2010

作　　者：汪彪 刘玉国[1] 周毅[1] 马应生[1] 

机构地区：[1]海军南海舰队海洋水文气象中心,广东湛江 [2]教育部中尺度灾害性天气重点试验室,南京大学,江苏南京

出　　处：《气候变化研究快报》2017年第5期283-287,共5页Climate Change Research Letters

摘　　要：利用1951~2010年湛江气象站(59658)的逐日平均气温资料,结合趋势分析法、M-K检验和小波分析等方法分别对湛江平均气温的趋势变化、突变检验和周期变化进行研究。得到主要结论如下:(1) 近60年的平均气温均值为23.3℃,标准差为0.48℃,倾向率为0.097℃/10a。(2) 在季节变化上,春季的平均气温变化幅度最大(1980~1989年代,STD = 4.4℃),夏季的均值最大(1990~1999年代,MEAN = 28.9℃),但变化幅度却最小(1951~1959和1960~1969年代的STD = 1.3℃)。(3) 湛江平均气温在1986年前后发生一次增加的突变。(4) 湛江年均气温存在2~3 a的和4~6 a的显著性震荡周期。Based on the meteorological data from 1951 to 2010 at Zhanjiang station (59658), the mean sur-face air temperature variation in time series is analyzed. The trend analysis, Mann-Kendall (M-K) mutation test and the wavelet analysis methods are used to investigate the trend, mutation and period of yearly mean surface air temperature. Major conclusions are obtained as follows: (1) Yearly mean surface air temperature in Zhanjiang ranged from 22.5?C to 24.5?C, averaging 23.3?C ±0.48?C. The linear decreasing trend is 0.097?C/10a from 1951 to 2010. (2) At the seasonal scale, the mean surface air temperature has the maximum variation in spring (1980-1989, STD = 4.4?C). The summer’s surface air temperature has the maximum mean value (MEAN = 28.9?C), however, it has the smallest variation (STD = 1.3?C in 1951-1959 and 1960-1969). (3) Yearly mean surface air temperature has a sharply increase around the year 1986. (4) Yearly mean surface air temperature in Zhanjiang has the period of 2 - 3 a and 4 - 6 a.

关 键 词：全球变暖 M-K检验 小波分析 湛江 

分 类 号：P4[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]