台风对邵阳地区的影响分析及预报预警对策  

Analysis of the Influence of Typhoon on Shaoyang Area and the Countermeasures of Forecasting and Warning

作　　者：吕校华 吕巍伟 金宣喜 唐佐阳 朱和香 

机构地区：[1]湖南省防灾减灾重点实验室,湖南 长沙 湖南省邵阳市气象局,湖南 邵阳 [2]湖南省邵阳市气象局,湖南 邵阳

出　　处：《气候变化研究快报》2020年第3期154-160,共7页Climate Change Research Letters

基　　金：湖南省气象局短平快项目(XQKJ19B021);国家自然科学基金资助项目(项目编号:50902110).

摘　　要：利用1980年~2019年7~10月登陆广东、广西、福建、浙江的台风资料、1980年~2019年邵阳地区10个代表站7~10月台风影响时段的逐日降水资料、风资料以及2005年~2019年7~10月自动站降水资料进行统计,分析台风登陆的时空特征、形成暴雨规律和台风的年代变化特征。结合对应的台风资料分析7~10月份登陆台风与降水之间的对应关系,登陆台风与风的关系,探讨预报预警发布对策。结果表明,1) 从年代际变化来看,台风有10~12年的偏多份和偏少年份,从月际变化来看,8月份登陆的台风最多,7月份次之,10月份最少。2) 登陆台风与暴雨的关系,只有7月份登陆的台风才使邵阳出现暴雨,其他月份则无暴雨。3) 登陆台风与邵阳大风的关系不密切,7级以上大风没有出现过,只出现过5~6级风,一般只出现3~4级的风。4) 7月份台风登陆时要考虑强降水预报,8月份要考虑大风的预报。文章结合经验总结出台风对本地影响的预报着眼点,最后提出了预报预警的发布对策。Based on typhoon data during 1980 to 2019 July-October log in Guangdong, Guangxi, Fujian, Zhejiang, daily precipitation data and wind data of typhoon influence period, automatic station precipitation data during 2005 to 2019 in July-October of 10 representative stations in Shaoyang, the characteristics of space and time of the typhoon landed in, rule of forming heavy rains and the typhoons regularity variation characteristics have been analyzed. Combined with the corresponding typhoon data, this paper analyzes the corresponding relationship between landfall typhoons and precipitation from July to October, the relationship between landfall typhoons and wind, and discusses the countermeasures for the release of forecast and early warning. The results show that 1) from the perspective of interdecadal variation, typhoons have more and less parts in 10 - 12 years. From the perspective of interdecadal variation, the number of typhoons landing in August is the most, followed by July, and the least in October. 2) the relationship between landfall typhoons and rainstorms. Only the landfall typhoons in July can cause rainstorms in Shaoyang, and no rainstorms in other months. 3) the relationship between the landfall typhoon and the shaoyang gale is not close. The gale above grade 7 has never appeared, only grade 5 - 6 wind has appeared, and generally only grade 3 - 4 wind has appeared. 4) when a typhoon makes landfall in July, it is necessary to consider the forecast of heavy precipitation, and the forecast of strong winds in August. Based on the experi-ence, this paper sums up the prediction focus of typhoon’s influence on local area and puts forward the countermeasures of early warning.

关 键 词：台风 暴雨 年代际变化 预报预警 对策 

分 类 号：P45[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]