基于SPI和SPEI的库鲁斯台草原1961~2016年干旱特征对比分析  

Comparative Analysis of Drought Characteristics of Kulusitai Grassland from 1961 to 2016 Based on SPI and SPEI

作　　者：董海英[1] 井立红[1] 

机构地区：[1]塔城地区气象局,新疆 塔城

出　　处：《气候变化研究快报》2020年第6期843-849,共7页Climate Change Research Letters

摘　　要：随着全球气候变暖、极端天气出现得越发频繁,塔城地区干旱发生的频率和危害程度均呈上升趋势。长期以来,由于人为的因素和自然的因素的影响,库鲁斯台草原生态环境逐年恶化,草原面积逐年减少,一些稀有野生动物濒临灭绝,植被体系破坏严重,天然种质资源枯竭。干旱因其成因复杂且易受人类活动影响,较难准确量化干旱持续时间、发生强度和影响范围。基于库鲁斯台草原1961~2016年月平均降水和气温资料,引入干旱指标:标准化降水指数(SPI)和标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI),应用12月尺度的SPI和SPEI定量描述库鲁斯台的56年来的干旱状况。结果表明:基于降水和蒸散的SPEI可以更灵活的反映月季干旱变化特征,而SPI指数没有温度变化对蒸散的影响,不利于表征月季干旱变化特征;近56a中,两种指数判定的同一时间尺度下的干旱事件次数和发生时间基本统一;两种指数在以12个月为尺度的时间趋变化上均存在着差异,SPEI呈变干趋势,SPI呈变湿趋势,与SPI相比,SPEI考虑了热量因子对潜在蒸散发的贡献,能较好地对气候变暖背景下研究区干旱进行刻画。Based on SPI and SPEI, the drought characteristics of Kulusitai grassland from 1961 to 2016 were compared and analyzed. With the global warming and the more frequent occurrence of extreme weather, the frequency and harm degree of drought in Tacheng area showed an increasing trend. For a long time, due to the influence of human factors and natural factors, the ecological environment of Kulusitai grassland is deteriorating year by year;the grassland area is decreasing year by year;some rare wild animals are on the verge of extinction;the vegetation system is seriously damaged;and the natural germplasm resources are exhausted. It is difficult to accurately quantify the duration, intensity and extent of drought because of its complex causes and easy to be affected by human activities. Based on the monthly mean precipitation and temperature data from 1961 to 2016, the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) were introduced to quantitatively describe the drought situation of Kulusitai grassland in the past 56 years using the December scale SPI and SPEI. The results show that SPEI based on precipitation and evapotranspiration can reflect the characteristics of rose drought more flexibly. The results show that there is no effect of temperature change on evapotranspiration, which is not conducive to characterizing the characteristics of drought change of rose. In recent 56 years, the number and occurrence time of drought events under the same time scale determined by the two indexes are basically the same;there are differences in the time trend of the two indexes on the scale of 12 months. SPEI tends to dry, while SPI tends to become wet. Compared with SPI, SPEI takes into account the heat factor. The contribution of sub to potential evapotranspiration can bet-ter describe the drought in the study area under the background of climate warming.

关 键 词：SPI SPEI 库鲁斯台草原 干旱 特征分析 

分 类 号：TP3[自动化与计算机技术—计算机科学与技术]