呼吸系统疾病与气象、环境因子相关性研究  

Research on Correlation between Respiratory Diseases and Meteorology and Environmental Factors

作　　者：何明琼 刘丽[2] 敖银银 

机构地区：[1]湖北省气象服务中心,湖北 武汉 [2]武汉大学医院,湖北 武汉 [3]湖北省公众气象服务中心,湖北 武汉

出　　处：《气候变化研究快报》2023年第2期267-274,共8页Climate Change Research Letters

摘　　要：通过对武汉市某社区医院2013~2019年每日呼吸系统疾病门诊就诊病例数据和同期气象、PM2.5平均浓度数据的分析,研究呼吸系统疾病与气象、环境因子的相关性,结果表明:1) 武汉市一周呼吸系统疾病发病率与周平均气温、周平均最低气温、周平均最高气温、周平均日照时数存在显著负相关(P = −0.68~−0.73, σ = 0.01),与PM2.5周平均浓度存在正相关(P = 0.49, σ = 0.01)。2) 呼吸系统疾病主要发生在秋冬季的10月至次年3月,高峰期出现在寒冬12月中下旬至1月上旬。发病率冬季 > 秋季 > 春季 > 夏季。3) 建立的呼吸系统疾病发病率预测模型有一定的参考价值,对呼吸系统疾病预防有重要意义。We analyze daily data of outpatients with respiratory disease in a community hospital, and synchronous data of meteorological condition, average PM2.5 concentration in Wuhan, China 2013~ 2019, to investigate the correlation between respiratory diseases and meteorology and environmental factors. Results: 1) Weekly incidence of respiratory diseases was negatively correlated with weekly mean temperature, weekly mean minimum temperature, weekly maximum temperature, and weekly mean sunshine hours (P = −0.68 to −0.73, σ = 0.01), positively correlated with weekly average PM2.5 concentration (P = 0.49, σ = 0.01). 2) Respiratory diseases mostly occurred from Oc-tober to March next year, peak time is mid-to-late December to early January in cold winter. The ranking of seasonal incidence of respiratory disease: winter > autumn > spring > summer. 3) The prediction model of incidence of respiratory disease is certainly worthy of reference, it is important to prevent respiratory diseases.

关 键 词：呼吸系统疾病发病率 气象因子 PM2.5 预测模型 

分 类 号：X51[环境科学与工程—环境工程]