高原机场远程预报低云低能见度分析研究  

Analysis of Low Cloud and Low Visibility in Plateau Airport Long-Range Forecast

作　　者：王琦 陈莉 代冰冰 陈高平 

机构地区：[1]云南机场集团有限责任公司丽江三义机场,云南 丽江

出　　处：《气候变化研究快报》2023年第4期671-678,共8页Climate Change Research Letters

摘　　要：文中选择以丽江机场作为预报中心,使用现有的预报产品及模式模拟制作泸沽湖机场远程航空预报。通过对比分析丽江机场低能见度月平均预报准确率及泸沽湖机场自身预报准确率可得出;在6~9月,丽江机场气象台与泸沽湖气象台对于低云低能见度的预报情况均较好;其中使用欧洲天气预报中心(ECMWF) ERA5提供的资料及现有的预报产品远程预报一次泸沽湖机场低云低能见度天气过程,此次个例分析也说明了远程预报的可行性。总体来说,对于航班运行期间远程预报泸沽湖机场低云低能见度的预报情况较好。In this paper, Lijiang Airport is selected as the forecasting center and the existing forecasting products and models are used to simulate the long-range aviation forecast of Lugu Lake Airport. By comparing and analyzing the monthly average forecast accuracy of low visibility of Lijiang Airport and Lugu Lake Airport itself, it can be obtained: from June to September, both Lijiang Airport me-teorological Observatory and Lugu Lake meteorological Observatory have good forecasts of low cloud and low visibility. The data provided by ERA5 of the European Centre for Weather Prediction (ECMWF) and existing forecasting products are used to forecast a low cloud and low visibility weather process at Lugu Lake Airport. The case analysis also shows the feasibility of long-range forecasting. Generally speaking, the long-range forecast of low cloud and low visibility at Lugu Lake Airport during flight operation is good.

关 键 词：远程预报 低能见度 预报准确率 

分 类 号：P45[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]