宜宾市烤烟产量及气象影响因子相关性分析  

Correlation Analysis of Flue-Cured Tobacco Yield and Meteorological Influencing Factors in Yibin City

作　　者：罗烜坤 高鹏 

机构地区：[1]宜宾市气象局,四川 宜宾 [2]六盘水市气象局,贵州 六盘水

出　　处：《气候变化研究快报》2023年第5期853-860,共8页Climate Change Research Letters

摘　　要：本文利用宜宾市1981年到2021年的气象数据资料和烤烟产量资料,分析和研究宜宾市烤烟主要生长期与气象因子的相关关系,进而考察宜宾市烤烟产量对本地气象因子的反应。结果表明:1) 在烤烟生产主要生长期,平均温度均与烤烟产量呈正相关关系,7月和8月的平均温度、最高温度的相关关系系数约为0.3,最高温度呈强相关,相关性系数近0.4,其中7月平均温度相关性系数值为0.58,此时正是烤烟中部烟叶和下部烟叶的成熟采摘时期,非常有利于提高烤烟产量。2) 在烤烟生产主要生长期,降水量总体与烤烟产量呈弱负相关关系,除7月降水量外其余生长期各月的相关关系系数均在−0.1左右,为弱负相关关系;但7月降水量的相关关系系数约为−0.51,呈强负相关表现,对烤烟产量有不利影响。3) 旺长期的日照与烤烟产量呈弱负相关关系,而成熟期呈正相关关系,相关性系数约0.178,对烤烟产量贡献相对较小。4) 在烤烟主要生长期各月相对湿度与烤烟产量呈弱相关关系,基本不会影响烤烟产量。通过分析可以得到烤烟对气象条件的要求存在一定的一致性,但由于地域不同,气象各因子存在非常大的差异,进而各地的烤烟产量与气象因子的相关性便存在地域性变化。综上可以得出宜宾的气象条件适宜烤烟的种植,并且有利于烤烟产量的提高。This article uses meteorological data and flue-cured tobacco yield data from 1981 to 2021 in Yibin City to analyze and study the correlation between the main growth period of flue-cured tobacco and meteorological factors, and then examines the response of flue-cured tobacco yield to local meteorological factors in Yibin City. The results show that: 1) During the main growth period of flue-cured tobacco production, the average temperature is positively correlated with the yield of flue-cured tobacco. The correlation coefficient between the average temperature and the highest temperature in July and August is about 0.3, and the highest temperature is strongly correlated with a correlation coefficient of nearly 0.4. Among them, the correlation coefficient value of the average temperature in July is 0.58, which is the mature picking period for the middle and lower leaves of flue-cured tobacco, which is very conducive to improving the yield of flue-cured tobacco. 2) During the main growth period of flue-cured tobacco production, there is a weak negative correlation between over-all precipitation and flue-cured tobacco yield. Except for the precipitation in July, the correlation co-efficients for the remaining months are around −0.1, indicating a weak negative correlation;But the correlation coefficient of precipitation in July is about −0.51, showing a strong negative correlation, which has a negative impact on the yield of flue-cured tobacco. 3) The long-term sunshine has a weak negative correlation with the yield of flue-cured tobacco, while the maturity period has a posi-tive correlation, with a correlation coefficient of about 0.178, making a relatively small contribution to the yield of flue-cured tobacco. 4) There is a weak correlation between the relative humidity of each month during the main growth period of flue-cured tobacco and the yield of flue-cured tobacco, which basically does not affect the yield. Through analysis, it can be concluded that there is a certain degree of consistency in the requiremen

关 键 词：烤烟 气象影响因子 相关性分析 

分 类 号：S57[农业科学—作物学]