扬州市冰雹时空分布特征及预报指标分析  

Temporal and Spatial Distribution Characteristics and Forecasting Indexes Analysis of Hail in Yangzhou

作　　者：仇丹妮 汪婵娟 迟静 

机构地区：[1]扬州市气象局,江苏 扬州 [2]威海市气象局,山东 威海

出　　处：《气候变化研究快报》2023年第5期950-959,共10页Climate Change Research Letters

摘　　要：利用1992~2022年扬州市冰雹灾情和常规观测资料,统计分析了扬州市冰雹的时空分布特征、天气形势特征和环境场特征等。结果表明:扬州市冰雹次数的年际变化总体呈下降趋势;月降雹数呈“单峰型”,峰值为7月;冰雹分布南多北少,降雹局地性明显;11~19时为主要降雹时段,占总频次近75%。扬州市易产生冰雹的天气形势主要分为沿海低槽、高空冷涡、槽前西南气流和低层辐合型。另外,筛选得出适合扬州市的8种预报指标特征,并针对不同季节和天气形势细化指标值域,为扬州市冰雹天气潜势预报提供参考。Based on the hail disaster and conventional observation data in Yangzhou from 1992 to 2022, the spatial-temporal distribution, weather situation and environmental field characteristics of hail are analyzed. The results show that the annual feature presents a downward trend generally. The monthly distribution of hail frequency shows a “single peak” pattern, with a peak in July. Hail is distributed more in the south and less in the north, with obvious local characteristics. The main hail period is from 11:00 to 19:00, accounting for nearly 75%. The weather patterns that are prone to hail are mainly divided into coastal low trough, high-altitude cold vortex, southwest flow in front of trough, and low-altitude convergence types. In addition, electing 8 forecasting indexes and refined based to season and weather situations, thus providing reference for hail weather potential forecast in Yangzhou.

关 键 词：冰雹 扬州 时空分布 冰雹天气形势 降雹指标 

分 类 号：P45[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]