货币供应量作为中国货币政策中介目标的两条路径  

Two Paths to the Intermediate Target of Monetary Policy Based on the Money Supply in China

作　　者：阎虎勤[1] 刘震宇[2] 

机构地区：[1]厦门国家会计学院,厦门 [2]厦门大学管理学院,厦门

出　　处：《金融》2012年第1期9-29,共21页Finance

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“电子商务环境下组织之间协调机制的研究”(项目批准号70372070).

摘　　要：货币供应量是否适合被作为中国货币政策中介目标呢?为了回答这个问题,我们建立了两个理论模型作为两条通向目标解决方案的路径。路径1:在假定货币流通速度为变量而非固定的情况下(阎虎勤、刘震宇,2011)[1],通过应用Friedman(1956)[2]提出的存量收入货币数量方程式,我们建立了一个求解货币供应量增长率预期值的模型。路径2:通过应用阎虎勤、刘震宇(2011)[3]提出的增量收入货币数量方程式,我们建立了另外一个求解货币供应量预期值的模型。通过以中国1994~2010年的数据为样本进行实证分析和敏感性分析证实,虽然通过两条路径我们都可以得到货币供应量增长率的预期值,但是路径2比路径1更显著。Should the money supply be used as an intermediate target of monetary policy in China? For an- swering this question, we have created two theoretical models as two paths to the target solutions. Path 1: when assuming that the velocity of money is a variable but not a constant (Yan Huqin, Liu Zhenyu, 2011)[1], by using the income quantity equation of money suggested by Friedman (1956)[2], we have created one model to get the expected growth rate of money supply. Path 2: by using the income quantity equation of money changes suggested by Yan Huqin and Liu Zhenyu (2011)[3], we have created the other model to get the ex- pected growth rate of money supply. Based on the Chinese data sample during 1994-2010 the empirical and sensitivity analysis has approved that even though through the two paths we can get the expected growth rate of money supply, the path 2 is more significant than the path 1.

关 键 词：存量货币数量方程式 增量货币数量方程式 货币流通加速度 超额货币增长率 货币政策中介目标 

分 类 号：F2[经济管理—国民经济]