数字金融对地方政府债务信用风险的影响实证研究  

Empirical Study on the Impact of Digital Finance on Local Government Debt Credit Risk

作　　者：崔欧阳 鲁文豪 万朋朋 郭双颖 范国锋 

机构地区：[1]平顶山学院数学与统计学院,河南 平顶山

出　　处：《金融》2025年第1期246-261,共16页Finance

摘　　要：本文以KMV模型和动态空间面板模型为核心构建指标体系,并选取2011~2022年全国31个省(自治区、直辖市)的省域面板数据来研究数字金融对地方政府债务信用风险的影响效应。研究表明:地方政府债务的信用风险在时间上存在惯性,在空间上具有显著的溢出效应,在时空上具有季风性;数字金融发展可以直接抑制地方政府债务的信用风险;数字金融对地方政府债务信用风险存在负向的空间溢出效应。This article uses the KMV model and dynamic space panel model as the core to build an index system, and selects the provincial-area panel data of 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) from 2011 to 2022 to study the effects of digital finance on local government debt credit risk. Studies have shown that the credit risk of local government debt has inertia over time, has a significant spillover effect in space, and has a monsoonal effect in both time and space;the development of digital finance can directly suppress the credit risk of local government debt;there is a negative spatial spillover effect of digital finance on the credit risk of local government debt.

关 键 词：数字金融 地方政府债务 KMV模型 动态空间面板模型 

分 类 号：F83[经济管理—金融学]