基于灾损预测模型的水稻洪灾风险等级划分  

The Risk Rank of Rice Flood Disaster Based on Damage Prediction Model

作　　者：沈伟 吴新胜 周航 王文清 张莹 

机构地区：[1]宿迁市气象局,江苏宿迁

出　　处：《农业科学》2017年第7期530-538,共9页Hans Journal of Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：江苏省气象科研开放基金项目(项目编号:K201010)。

摘　　要：本文基于面板回归模型分析了宿迁水稻灾损率与暴雨洪涝灾害指数的相关性,建立了宿迁地区水稻暴雨洪涝灾损预测模型。以模型结果输出的水稻暴雨洪涝灾害损失率(灾损强度)和重灾乡镇比例(重灾面积)为依据,实现了宿迁地区水稻暴雨洪涝灾害的四级风险等级划分。通过统计分析历史灾情数据,得出各风险等级的灾害特征参数,作为应对水稻暴雨洪涝灾害风险的主要依据,用于指导生产实践。By analyzing the relationship between the actual disaster loss rate and the index of storm flood disaster using panel regression model, prediction model of storm flood disaster of rice in Suqian area was designed. The risk rank of rice flood disaster was divided into 4 grades by the results of model. The disaster characteristic parameter was got by the statistical analysis of historical disaster data which can be used to reduce the flood disaster of rice.

关 键 词：水稻 暴雨洪涝 灾损 风险等级 风险特征 

分 类 号：F2[经济管理—国民经济]