“后世博效应”的系统动力学模型研究  

Study on the System Dynamics Model of the Post Expo Effect

作　　者：熊国钺[1] 杨国帅 景琳[1] 

机构地区：[1]同济大学经济与管理学院,上海

出　　处：《现代管理》2014年第6期99-109,共11页Modern Management

基　　金：上海市社科基金“后世博低谷效应”的形成机理与主动控制方法研究(项目编号2010EZH005)资助。

摘　　要：本文在确定系统边界和变量的基础上,依据系统动力学模型确定了动力学流程图中各经济变量的数量关系,从而建立世博会对上海市经济影响的系统动力学模型,并对其进行了拟合优度检验和灵敏度检验。在此基础上,根据模型对世博后上海GDP增长率进行了仿真与实际结果的对照,并给出合理解释。On the basis of determining the system boundary and variable, we confirm the relationship among those economic variables according to the system dynamics theory. After that, the system dynamics model which shows the World Expo impact on the Shanghai’s economy has been established. This model has been examined by goodness of fit test and sensitivity test. Finally, based on this model, we contrast the simulation result and actual result of the GDP growth of Shanghai after the World Expo and give a reasonable explanation.

关 键 词：后世博效应 系统动力学 模拟仿真 

分 类 号：F2[经济管理—国民经济]