中国生鲜水产品出口市场结构的三阶段优化  

Three-Stage Optimization of the Export Market Structure of the Fresh Aquatic Products in China

作　　者：马慧雯[1] 蔡一鸣[2] 

机构地区：[1]广东科贸职业学院经济管理学院,广东 广州 [2]华南师范大学经济与管理学院,广东 广州

出　　处：《现代管理》2020年第3期435-445,共11页Modern Management

摘　　要：入世以来,中国生鲜水产品的出口贸易增长迅速。但是,在此过程中其出口增长速度呈现出较大的波动性。出口企业在出口市场的“自由选择”中所导致的市场失灵,会加剧该产业出口所面临的总体波动水平。因此,政府需要采取必要的干预措施。本文沿着均值–相对方差方法的思路,构建了多阶段出口市场组合模型,该模型可以为政府的干预行为提供理论基础。利用该模型和2002至2017年的中国生鲜水产品贸易数据,本文发现:一、中国水产品应直接或者逐步退出美国和韩国市场;二、应大幅度提高对泰国和菲律宾的出口份额;三、对香港的出口份额调整取决于政策制定者对预期增长率的选择;四、应逐步减少对日本的份额,与此同时要相应地逐步增加对“其他国家”的出口份额。进一步地,根据各出口市场最优份额的特征,所有的出口市场可以分为四个类型:理想型、退出型、有限调整型、风险态度依赖型,而不同市场须采取不同的政策措施。Since China’s entry to the WTO, the export trade of the fresh aquatic products in China has grown rapidly. However, in this process, the export growth rate showed a large volatility. The market failure of export enterprises in the “free choice” of export destination will aggravate the overall fluctuation level of an industry’s export. Therefore, the government needs to take necessary inter-ventions. Based on the idea of mean-relative variance method, this paper constructs a multi-stage export markets mix model, which can provide a theoretical basis for government intervention. Using this model and the trade data of the fresh aquatic products in China from 2002 to 2017, we find that: first, China’s aquatic products should directly or gradually withdraw from the USA and South Korean markets;second, China’s share of exports to Thailand and the Philippines should be significantly increased;third, Hong Kong’s share adjustment depends on the policy makers’ choice of the expected growth rate;fourth, other countries’ share should be increased, at the same time, we should gradually reduce Japan’s share accordingly. Further, according to the characteristics of the optimal share of each export market, all export markets can be divided into four types: ideal market, exit market, limited adjustment market and risk attitude dependent market. Different markets should adopt different policy measures.

关 键 词：中国水产品 出口风险 三阶段优化 出口市场组合 政策建议 

分 类 号：F32[经济管理—产业经济]