基于Bow-Tie模型的交通事故分析  

Traffic Accident Analysis Based on Bow-Tie Model

作　　者：梁景盛 麻博文 孙刚禹 索晨霞[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京石油化工学院,北京

出　　处：《建模与仿真》2022年第4期1151-1160,共10页Modeling and Simulation

摘　　要：交通事故的发生是由某一“致命”因素引起,而引起事故的发生又可划分为多种原因,为了更加系统全面地分析交通事故,我们采用了Bow-Tie模型进行研究。在交通事故原因辨识方面,我们采用了数据统计、reason理论以及辩证分析等方法进行了具体的阐述,从而得到了交通事故的形成机理,最终将交通事故的发生因素一方面分为人员违反交通管理法规造成的,如酒后驾驶、闯红灯、超速和疲劳驾驶等,另一方面分为地震、台风和山洪等不可抗力因素导致。对交通事故的起因和后果以及相应的预防和控制措施进行了阐述,并基于上述分析绘制成完整的交通事故Bow-Tie图。The occurrence of traffic accidents is caused by a “fatal” factor, and the occurrence of accidents can be divided into many reasons. In order to analyze traffic accidents more systematically and comprehensively, we use Bow-Tie model for research. In the aspect of traffic accident cause identification, we use data statistics, reason theory and dialectical analysis to elaborate in detail, so as to obtain the formation mechanism of traffic accidents. Finally, the occurrence factors of traffic accidents are divided into drunk driving, running red lights, speeding and fatigued driving, etc., and the causes and consequences of traffic accidents and corresponding prevention and control measures are described. Based on the above analysis, a complete Bow-Tie diagram of traffic accidents is drawn.

关 键 词：事故 起因 措施 后果 Bow-Tie模型 

分 类 号：D92[政治法律—法学]