针对全球变暖问题的相关数据的建模量化分析  

Modeling Quantitative Analysis of Data Related to the Problem of Global Warming

作　　者：孙一泽 黄文毅 

机构地区：[1]上海理工大学机械工程学院,上海

出　　处：《建模与仿真》2023年第3期2687-2696,共10页Modeling and Simulation

摘　　要：本文旨在针对自上个世纪开始出现的全球变暖效应,在进入21世纪后出现了Hiatus (全球变暖停滞状态)现象,使得公众开始怀疑全球变暖的真实性这一具体情况,通过大量数据分析全球变暖产生的原因,深入挖掘并量化分析极端天气现象的产生原因与气候变化之间所存在的数学关系,通过具体国家,选取代表性城市通过历史数据挖掘出温度的时空变化趋势,从历史数据中找寻温度变化规律。同时本文站在气候尺度上看待全球变暖问题,考虑到地表温度变化、大气层中二氧化碳浓度变化以及海洋吸热等一系列因素,量化相关数据,建立有利于非专业人士理解和认识的全球气候模型和极端天气模型,对未来气候变化进行预测。The purpose of this paper is to address the specific situation that Hiatus (global warming hiatus) phenomenon has appeared since the last century, which makes the public begin to doubt the reality of global warming. Through analyzing the causes of global warming with a large number of data, the mathematical relationship between the causes of extreme weather phenomena and climate change is deeply explored and quantitatively analyzed. Through the historical data of specific countries and representative cities, the temporal and spatial trends of temperature are mined, and the rules of temperature change are found from the historical data. At the same time, this paper looks at global warming from the climate scale, taking into account a series of factors such as surface temperature change, carbon dioxide concentration change in the atmosphere and ocean heat absorption, quan-tifying relevant data and establishing global climate models and extreme weather models that are conducive to non-professionals’ understanding and cognition, so as to predict future climate change.

关 键 词：全球变暖问题 未来气候变化 地表温度 全球气候模型 二氧化碳浓度 极端天气 气候尺度 量化分析 

分 类 号：P46[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]