草原放牧策略研究  

Study on Grassland Grazing Strategy

作　　者：卜锦峰 游澳辉 王义文 

机构地区：[1]上海理工大学机械工程学院,上海

出　　处：《建模与仿真》2023年第3期3212-3223,共12页Modeling and Simulation

摘　　要：草原在生态系统中发挥着不可或缺的作用,如净化空气、调节水土流失以及维持生态多样性等。本文研究建立土壤蒸发量以及降水量对不同深度土壤湿度的预测模型,以及建立放牧策略对草原土壤化学性质影响的预测模型。针对不同深度土壤湿度和土壤蒸发量以及降水量与时间年月有一定的关联,具有时序性,所以采用LSTM方法建立不同深度土壤湿度的预测模型。考虑到每年的对应月份之间的关系更强,所以本文对12个月份分别建立了LSTM预测模型,利用相应的模型预测2023年的不同深度的土壤湿度。针对放牧策略对草原土壤化学性质影响,分别对土壤有机碳、无机碳、全氮建立了三个随机森林回归预测模型。利用模型预测2022年不同牧区不同放牧强度下土壤同期的有机碳、无机碳、全氮值,最后求出土壤全碳和土壤C/N比值。本文的研究可以为草原放牧策略提供重要的方法论指导。The Grassland plays an indispensable role in the ecosystem, such as purifying the air, regulating soil erosion and maintaining ecological diversity. In this paper, the prediction model of soil evaporation and precipitation on soil moisture at different depths and the prediction model of the effect of graz-ing strategy on soil chemical properties of grassland were established. In view of the correlation between soil moisture, soil evaporation and precipitation at different depths and time and year, which is sequential, LSTM method is used to establish the prediction model of soil moisture at dif-ferent depths. Considering that the relationship between corresponding months of each year is stronger, this paper establishes LSTM prediction models for 12 months respectively, and uses cor-responding models to predict soil moisture at different depths in 2023. Three random forest re-gression prediction models were established for soil organic carbon, inorganic carbon and total ni-trogen, respectively, aiming at the effects of grazing strategies on soil chemical properties in grass-land. The model was used to predict soil organic carbon, inorganic carbon and total nitrogen values under different grazing intensities in different pastoral areas in 2022, and finally the ratio of soil total carbon and soil C/N was calculated. The research of this paper can provide important method-ological guidance for grassland grazing strategy.

关 键 词：土壤蒸发量 土壤湿度 土壤化学性质 随机森林回归 土壤有机碳 预测模型 生态多样性 无机碳 

分 类 号：S15[农业科学—土壤学]