EC产品在2021年“小寒”寒潮中的应用  

Application of EC Products in Cold Wave in Lesser Cold of 2021

作　　者：李柄更 陈晓斌 刘志宏 

机构地区：[1]中国海警局,北京 [2]92538部队,辽宁 大连

出　　处：《自然科学》2021年第2期265-271,共7页Open Journal of Nature Science

摘　　要：2021年1月4~8日一股强大的“小寒”寒潮迅速在全国蔓延。通过windy网站下的EC可视化产品对此次过程的黄渤海区风场和单站降雪进行了预报,验证与分析表明:区域性预报应兼顾可视化平均风和阵风产品的颜色范围、持续时间、最大阵风、风力变化时间,综合给出预报结论,传真图可以作为辅助预报产品,整体准确率较高;单站的降雪预报是满足预期的,雪量预报偏小,但降水性质与降雪事件击中率预报准确率为100%。From January 4 to 8 in 2021, a strong cold wave in Lesser Cold quickly spread across China. Using EC visualization products on the windy website, wind field in Huang Bohai area and the process of snowfall in single station has been carried on the forecast, validation and analysis indicate that the regional forecast should consider the color range, duration, maximum gust, wind change time of visual average wind and gust products, and then the comprehensive forecast conclusion can be drawn. When facsimile chart can be used as an auxiliary forecast product, the overall accuracy is higher;the snowfall forecast of single station can meet the expectation, and the forecast of snow amount is small, but the forecast accuracy of precipitation property and hit rate in snow event is 100%.

关 键 词：小寒寒潮 EC产品 传真图 积雪深度 

分 类 号：P45[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]