近60年贵州省夏季降水量时空变化特征  

Characteristics of Temporal and Spatial Variation of Summer Precipitation in Guizhou Province for Recent 60 Years

作　　者：王然 毛文书[1] 宋荣津 何泠萱 

机构地区：[1]成都信息工程大学大气科学学院,四川 成都

出　　处：《自然科学》2021年第3期299-309,共11页Open Journal of Nature Science

摘　　要：利用1961~2017年近60a贵州省夏季(6~8月)逐日降水量气象基本观测资料,运用克里金插值方法、EOF分解、线性倾向估计、小波分析和M-K检验等多种现代气候统计诊断分析方法,对贵州省近60a夏季降水量时空变化特征进行了较为详细的研究。结果表明:(1) 近60a来,贵州省夏季降水量呈西南–东北走向的空间分布类型,其中贵州省的西南部为夏季降水量大值区域,东北部为夏季降水量小值区域。(2) EOF分解第1模态表明:贵州省夏季降水量具有全省一致性的空间分布特征;第2模态表明:贵州省夏季降水量呈南、北反位相变化的空间分布特征。(3) 小波分析表明:贵州省夏季降水变化具有28a的第1主周期变化特征。(4) 线性倾向估计和M-K检验表明:1989年后,贵州省夏季降水量减少的趋势减缓,降水量逐渐开始变为增多的趋势;2002年后,夏季降水量增多的趋势减缓,逐渐开始变为减少的趋势。This paper discusses nearly 60a spatio-temporal variation characteristics of summer rainfall in Guizhou in details with local daily precipitation on basic meteorological data from 1961 to 2017 summer (June~August) through Kriging interpolation method, empirical orthogonal function, linear tendency estimation, wavelet analysis, Mann-Kendall test and other modern climatic statistical di-agnostic analysis methods. It’s concluded that: (1) In the past 60 years, the southwest of Guizhou Province is the region with large summer precipitation value, while the northeast is the opposite. The spatial distribution pattern of precipitation is southwest to northeast. (2) The first EOF mode shows that the summer precipitation in Guizhou Province has the provincial consistency, and the second mode shows the north-south anti-phase change. (3) The wavelet analysis demonstrates the summer precipitation change in Guizhou has the first main periodic change in 28 years. (4) The linear trend estimation and Mann-Kendall test indicate that the decreasing trend of summer precipitation has slowed down after 1989, and gradually began to increase. After 2002, the increasing trend of summer precipitation has slowed down and gradually began to turn into decreasing.

关 键 词：贵州省 降水量分布 EOF分解 小波分析 M-K检验 

分 类 号：P46[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]