数值预报在民航短期气象分析的使用  

The Application of Numerical Weather Prediction in Short-Term Meteorological Analysis for Civil Aviation

作　　者：欧紫娴 陈求振 

机构地区：[1]中国民用航空三亚空中交通管理站,海南 三亚

出　　处：《自然科学》2024年第5期1162-1170,共9页Open Journal of Nature Science

摘　　要：随着民航气象事业的不断发展,数值预报技术在航空气象中得到了广泛使用,然而在数值预报技术使用上,业务人员普遍存在认识的偏差或使用经验的不足,导致在天气分析中,过度依赖数值预报产品或在调整数值产品的过程中无从下手。因此,本文通过一次FT1818时次的TAF机场预报产品制作案例,针对文中所提出的“实况气象资料作为预报的着眼点、分析数值预报产品为基础、多角度对比数值产品以及综合上级部门指导意见”这一套数值预报产品使用思路,通过一系列步骤的讲解,规范数值预报在民航气象中的使用,进一步促进民航气象中有关“实用性”和“准确性”要求的发展。With the continuous development of civil aviation meteorology, numerical forecasting technology has been widely used in aviation meteorology. However, in the use of numerical forecasting technology, business personnel have a deviation in understanding or lack of experience, which leads to excessive reliance on numerical forecasting products or the process of adjusting numerical products in weather analysis. Therefore, through an FT1818 time TAF airport forecast product production case, this paper explains a series of steps for the application of the numerical forecast product, which is “taking the actual meteorological data as the focus of forecast, based on the analysis of numerical forecast products, comparing numerical products from multiple angles and synthesizing the guidance of superior departments”. To standardize the use of numerical forecasting in civil aviation meteorology, and further promote the development of “practicability” and “accuracy” requirements in civil aviation meteorology.

关 键 词：航空气象 机场预报 天气分析 数值预报 预报思路 

分 类 号：F56[经济管理—产业经济]