桂林市旅游包车运力需求预测分析  

Forecast and Analysis of the Demand for the Capacity of Tourist Chartered Cars in Guilin

作　　者：农杭 李文勇 冯雅雪 

机构地区：[1]桂林电子科技大学建筑与交通工程学院,广西 桂林

出　　处：《交通技术》2020年第3期159-165,共7页Open Journal of Transportation Technologies

摘　　要：随着旅游客运需求的快速增长,桂林市现行的旅游包车运力投放模式已远远不能适应旅游业的发展需求,由于旅游客运企业对运力投放缺乏科学依据,造成了运力过剩、车辆结构不合理等问题,企业效益严重下降。本文通过对桂林市旅游包车市场进行充分调研,总结旅游包车市场存在的问题,根据供需平衡原理建立旅游包车运力需求预测模型,对桂林市旅游包车运力的需求量进行科学预测,避免盲目投放造成的运力浪费,为旅游包车运力的发展规划提供依据。With the rapid growth of demand for tourist passenger transport, the current model of tourist charter capacity delivery in Guilin is far from being able to meet the development needs of the tourism industry. Due to the lack of scientific basis for the transportation capacity of tourist pas-senger transport companies, this has resulted in excess capacity and unreasonable vehicle struc-ture problem. The efficiency of enterprises has seriously declined. This article through a full in-vestigation of the tourist chartered market in Guilin, summarizes the problems in the tourist chartered market, establishes a forecast model of the tourist chartered transport capacity based on the supply and demand balance principle, scientifically predicts the demand for tourist char-tered transport capacity in Guilin, and avoids the waste of transportation capacity owing to blind investment, providing a basis for the development plan of the transportation capacity of the chartered car.

关 键 词：旅游包车 运力 需求预测 桂林 

分 类 号：F59[经济管理—旅游管理]