基于多因素Logistic回归分析的广西低等级公路交通事故风险评估研究  

Risk Assessment Studies of Low-Grade Highway Traffic Accidents in Guangxi Based on Multivariate Logistic Regression Analysis

作　　者：黄静洁 程瑞 纪宇 张燕熙 

机构地区：[1]桂林电子科技大学建筑与交通工程学院,广西 桂林

出　　处：《交通技术》2023年第2期93-104,共12页Open Journal of Transportation Technologies

摘　　要：为了探究低等级公路交通事故致因,预防重大事故及减少事故伤害后果,基于2012~2021年间广西低等级公路交通事故数据,从人–车–道路–环境因素四方面选取48个潜在影响因素,采用多因素Logistic回归分析筛选得到影响不同水平事故严重度的显著性因素。研究结果表明:导致事故严重度为死亡或重伤的显著性影响因素有驾驶人驾龄为49~60个月,参与方车辆类型为半挂车、客车、摩托车,发生事故时车速为60 km/h以上,车辆与道路固定物碰撞,事故发生月份在4月、5月、6月,事故发生时间段在0:00~3:00;事故严重度为未受伤或轻微受伤的显著性影响因素有参与方车辆类型为小型轿车、事故时车速为0~40 km/h、车辆状态为静止、道路灯点亮、无纵坡、晴天、事故发生时间段在5:00~6:00。研究结果可为广西低等级公路进行交通事故预防和风险评估提供参考和依据,对于提高广西低等级公路运输安全水平具有现实意义。In order to explore the causes of low-level highway traffic accidents, prevent major accidents and reduce the consequences of accident injuries, based on the data of low-level highway traffic accidents in Guangxi from 2012 to 2021, 48 potential influencing factors were selected from the four aspects of human-vehicle-road-environmental factors, and multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to screen the significant factors affecting the severity of accidents at different levels. The results show that the significant influencing factors leading to the death or severe injury accidents are 49~60 months of driving age, the type of vehicle of the participant is semi-trailer, bus, motorcycle, the speed at the time of the accident is more than 60 km/h, the vehicle collides with the road fixture, the accident occurs in April, May and June, and the accident time period is 0:00~3:00;The significant influencing factors of accident severity as no injury or minor injury are the vehicle type of the participant is a small car, the speed at the time of the accident is 0~40 km/h, the vehicle state is stationary, the road lights are lit, there is no longitudinal slope, the weather is sunny, and the time period of the accident is 5:00~6:00. The research results can provide a reference and basis for traffic accident prevention and risk assessment on low-grade highways in Guangxi, and have practical significance for improving the safety level of low-grade road transport in Guangxi.

关 键 词：低等级公路 事故严重度 影响因素 多因素LOGISTIC回归分析 

分 类 号：U46[机械工程—车辆工程]