改进的指数曲线模型及其在西藏自治区水资源总量中的应用  

An Improved Exponential Curve Model and its Application in the Total Water Resources in Tibet Autonomous Region

作　　者：张萍 罗缝 

机构地区：[1]成都理工大学工程技术学院基础教学部,四川 乐山 [2]乐山职业技术学院机电工程系,四川 乐山

出　　处：《运筹与模糊学》2019年第4期292-298,共7页Operations Research and Fuzziology

摘　　要：本文在指数曲线模型和修正的指数曲线模型的基础上引入时间幂次项,提出了一种改进的新型指数曲线模型。利用非线性最小二乘法的思想,结合信赖域算法对新提出的指数曲线模型的参数进行了估计。在此基础上,将模型应用于西藏自治区水资源总量中。首先,借助Matlab软件求解出系统参数的具体取值,并给出模型的具体表达式。进一步,将建模的结果与经典的指数曲线、修正的指数曲线进行比较,计算结果表明改进的指数曲线模型在西藏自治区水资源总量问题上有更高的预测精度。Based on the exponential curve model and the modified exponential curve model, an improved exponential curve model is proposed by introducing the time power term in this paper. According to the idea of non-linear least square method and trust region algorithm, the parameters of the new exponential curve model are estimated. On this basis, the model is applied to the total water resources of Tibet Autonomous Region. Firstly, the specific values of system parameters are solved by using the Matlab software, and then the specific expression of the new model is given. Furthermore, the results of the new model are compared with the classical exponential curve and the modified exponential curve model. The calculation results show that the new modified model has higher prediction accuracy on the total water resources in Tibet Autonomous Region.

关 键 词：指数曲线 时间幂次项 非线性最小二乘法 水资源总量 

分 类 号：TP3[自动化与计算机技术—计算机科学与技术]