人口老龄化背景下养老金缺口预测及政策建议——以辽宁省为例  

Pension Gap Prediction and Policy Recommendations under the Background of Population Aging—Taking Liaoning Province as an Example

作　　者：汪荣 

机构地区：[1]上海工程技术大学管理学院,上海

出　　处：《运筹与模糊学》2023年第5期5506-5513,共8页Operations Research and Fuzziology

摘　　要：2022年我国第一次出现人口负增长的趋势,急速加剧了人口老龄化的到来。我国老年人主要依靠养老金来获取收入,这是保障社会养老需求的重要手段。然而,由于人口年龄结构、养老保险制度的缺陷、资金投资运营效率低以及财政支持力度不足等原因,养老金的收支平衡面临着巨大的挑战。在这个背景下,本文以辽宁省的养老金收支平衡为研究对象,利用《中国统计年鉴》等资料进行数据收集和分析。通过应用GM(1, 1)灰色预测模型,本文对辽宁省养老金的当前结余情况进行预测。在当前政策不变的情况下,预计养老金缺口将逐渐扩大。为了应对养老金未来可能出现的财务风险,辽宁省率先提出多层养老体系协调发展、弹性延迟退休、引入自动调节机制以及加大养老产业市场投资力度的四条建议,以为解决辽宁省乃至全国范围内人口老龄化所带来的养老金收支平衡问题提供决策依据。最后得出解决中国实际情况的养老金缺口问题,需长期共同实行局部提升财政支出中社会保障支出的比重、加快发展第三支柱个人商业养老保险、渐进式延迟退休年龄和提高养老金投资规模和收益率。In 2022, China’s population showed a trend of negative growth for the first time, which rapidly aggravated the arrival of population aging. The elderly in China mainly rely on pensions to obtain income, which is an important means to protect the needs of social pension. However, due to the age structure of the population, the defects of the pension insurance system, the low efficiency of capital investment and operation, and the lack of financial support, the balance of payments of pensions is facing enormous challenges. In this context, this paper takes the pension balance of payments in Liaoning Province as the research object, and uses the China Statistical Yearbook and other data for data collection and analysis. Through the application of GM(1, 1) grey prediction model, this paper predicts the current balance of pension in Liaoning Prov-ince. With the current policy unchanged, it is expected that the pension gap will gradually expand. In order to deal with the financial risks that may arise in the future of pensions, Liaoning Province has taken the lead in proposing four suggestions for the coordinated development of the multi-layer pension system, the flexible delay of retirement, the introduction of an automatic adjustment mechanism, and the increase of investment in the pension industry market, so as to provide decision-making basis for solving the pension balance problem caused by the aging population in Liaoning Province and even the whole country. Finally, it is concluded that to solve the pension gap problem in China’s actual situation, it is necessary to jointly implement a long-term partial increase in the proportion of social security expenditure in fiscal expenditure, accelerate the development of the third pillar of individual commercial pension insurance, gradually delay the retirement age and increase the scale and yield of pension investment.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 养老金缺口 灰色预测模型 

分 类 号：F83[经济管理—金融学]