旅游经济韧性对区域旅游发展的空间溢出效应分析  

Analysis of the Spatial Spillover Effect of Tourism Economic Resilience on Regional Tourism Development

作　　者：郭芸 

机构地区：[1]上海工程技术大学管理学院,上海

出　　处：《运筹与模糊学》2023年第6期6221-6233,共13页Operations Research and Fuzziology

摘　　要：随着进入vcua时代,不利外部冲击下旅游经济表现出强大韧性。利用旅游经济韧性带动区域旅游发展成为旅游业可持续高质量发展的关键。旅游经济韧性的时空演变及其对区域旅游发展的空间溢出效应是本文的主要分析内容。本文基于2006~2020的面板数据,从韧性的抵御、恢复、重组和更新四个维度构建了旅游经济韧性评价指标体系,通过STATA和ArcGis软件运用熵值法、空间自相关分析和双固定空间杜宾模型等方法揭示我国各省旅游经济韧性的发展趋势及空间溢出效应。结果显示:旅游经济的抵御力和恢复力较强,而重组力和更新力还有待提高;从时间来看,旅游经济韧性呈现出逐渐上升的增长趋势,2019年达到峰值0.2532后开始下降;从空间分布来看,旅游经济韧性表现出“东南沿海区域较强,西北边缘区域较弱”的特点;从空间溢出效应来看,莫兰指数均为正说明旅游经济发展水平和旅游经济韧性都具有较为显著的空间正相关性,双固定空间杜宾模型系数1.598说明旅游经济韧性对区域旅游发展呈现出显著的正向溢出效应。With the entry of the VCUA era, the tourism economy has shown strong resilience under adverse external shocks. Using the resilience of tourism economy to drive regional tourism development has become the key to sustainable and high-quality development of tourism. The temporal and spatial evolution of tourism economic resilience and its spatial spillover effect on regional tour-ism development are the main analysis contents of this paper. Based on the panel data from 2006 to 2020, this paper constructs the evaluation index system of tourism economic resilience from four dimensions of resilience resistance, recovery, reorganization and renewal, and reveals the development trend and spatial spillover effect of tourism economic resilience in vari-ous provinces in China by using entropy value method, spatial autocorrelation analysis and dou-ble fixed space Dubin model through STATA and ArcGis software. The results show that the re-silience and resilience of the tourism economy are strong, while the restructuring and renewal power need to be improved. From the perspective of time, the resilience of the tourism economy showed a gradual upward growth trend, and began to decline after reaching a peak of 0.2532 in 2019. From the perspective of spatial distribution, the resilience of tourism economy shows the characteristics of “strong southeast coastal area and weak northwest edge area”. From the perspective of spatial spillover effect, the Moran index is positive, indicating that the level of tourism economic development and tourism economic resilience have a significant positive spatial correlation, and the coefficient of the double fixed space Dubin model is 1.598, indicating that the resilience of tourism economy shows a significant positive spillover effect on regional tour-ism development.

关 键 词：旅游经济韧性 区域旅游发展 空间自相关 空间杜宾模型 

分 类 号：F59[经济管理—旅游管理]