基于灰色系统GM(1,1)模型的陕西省用水量预测分析  

Predictive Analysis of Water Consumption in Shanxi Province Based on Grey System GM(1,1) Model

作　　者：付山贤 

机构地区：[1]西安建筑科技大学管理学院,陕西 西安

出　　处：《运筹与模糊学》2024年第1期61-72,共12页Operations Research and Fuzziology

摘　　要：为了解决地区间水资源分配不均和供需不平衡的问题,通过区域的用水量合理预测来优化水资源配置,对水资源的规划和管理具有十分重要的意义。文章使用传统灰色GM(1,1)模型和改进后的灰色GM(1,1)模型,从用水总量、生活用水量、生态用水量、农业用水量和工业用水量五个方面对陕西省用水量进行预测。结果表明:传统灰色GM(1,1)模型在用水总量、生活用水量、生态用水量方面精度更高,改进后的灰色GM(1,1)模型更适合在农业用水量和工业用水量方面的预测。文章使用精度最高的模型响应式对陕西省未来5年的用水量进行预测,对实际水资源调度决策具有参考价值。In order to solve the problems of uneven distribution of water resources and imbalance between supply and demand among regions, it is of great significance to optimize the allocation of water resources through reasonable forecasting of regional water consumption. This paper uses the traditional grey GM(1,1) model and the improved grey GM(1,1) model to predict the water consumption of Shaanxi Province from five aspects: total water consumption, domestic water consumption, ecological water consumption, agricultural water consumption and industrial water consumption. The results show that the traditional grey GM(1,1) model has higher accuracy in terms of total water consumption, domestic water consumption and ecological water consumption, and the improved grey GM(1,1) model is more suitable for forecasting agricultural water consumption and industrial water consumption. This paper uses the most accurate model to predict, which is of reactive use to predict water consumption in Shaanxi Province in the next five years, which has reference value for actual water resource scheduling decisions.

关 键 词：灰色理论 GM(1 1)模型 用水量预测 残差修正 

分 类 号：TV2[水利工程]