基于多元回归模型的菏泽市粮食产量主要影响因素分析及对策建议  

Analysis of Main Influencing Factors of Grain Yield in Heze City Based on Multiple Regression Model and Strategic Recommendations

作　　者：王妍 何文[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海理工大学管理学院,上海

出　　处：《理论数学》2024年第6期231-241,共11页Pure Mathematics

摘　　要：粮食是人类的生命线,是国家的基石。为了提高菏泽市粮食产量,本文基于双对数多元线性回归模型来探究影响菏泽市粮食产量的主要因素。本文搜集了菏泽市2000~2022年粮食产量及其相关指标的统计数据,分别以菏泽市粮食总产量、粮食单产量、人均粮食产量为被解释变量,选取粮食播种面积、农用化肥施用折纯量、农业机械总动力、农药施用量、有效灌溉面积、乡村劳动力资源、全年平均温度、全年降水量、全年日照时数为解释变量,建立双对数多元线性回归模型,通过逐步回归法消除多重共线性,最终得到粮食播种面积、农药施用量、有效灌溉面积、乡村劳动力资源、全年降水量是影响菏泽市粮食产量的主要因素。最后,针对主要影响因素提出对策建议。Food is the lifeline of humanity and the cornerstone of a country. In order to increase the grain output in Heze City, this article explores the main factors affecting the grain output in Heze City based on a double-log multiple linear regression model. The article collected statistical data on grain output and related indicators in Heze City from 2000 to 2022, with total grain output, grain yield per unit area, and per capita grain output as dependent variables. Independent variables included grain sowing area, pure amount of chemical fertilizer application, total agricultural machinery power, pesticide application amount, effective irrigation area, rural labor resources, average annual temperature, annual precipitation, and annual sunshine hours. A double-log multiple linear regression model was established, and multicollinearity was eliminated through stepwise regression. The main factors affecting grain output in Heze City were determined to be grain sowing area, pesticide application amount, effective irrigation area, rural labor resources, and annual precipitation. Finally, strategic recommendations were proposed based on these main influencing factors.

关 键 词：菏泽市 粮食产量 主要影响因素 多元线性回归 对策建议 

分 类 号：F32[经济管理—产业经济]