对外贸易对我国省级经济增长的影响——基于空间杜宾模型的实证研究  

The Effect of China’s Foreign Trade on Provincial Economic Growth—An Empirical Research Based on the Spatial Durbin Model

作　　者：顾召云 张辉国[1] 胡锡健[1] 

机构地区：[1]新疆大学数学与系统科学学院,新疆乌鲁木齐

出　　处：《统计学与应用》2017年第2期156-164,共9页Statistical and Application

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41261087);教育部青年基金(12XJJC910001)。

摘　　要：本文运用空间面板数据模型,分析我国各省市对外贸易与经济增长的关系。研究结果表明:各省的经济具有集聚效应且本省经济的发展会带动周围省份的经济。出口的增长会促进经济增长,但进口会阻碍经济的发展,而且出口对经济的正向促进作用大于进口对经济的阻碍作用。In this paper, the spatial panel data model is used to analyze the relationship between the foreign trade and provincial economic growth. The results show that: The economics of the provinces has the agglomeration effect and the economic development of the province will drive the economy of the surrounding provinces. The growth of exports can promote the economic growth, but the import can hamper the development of economy, and the positive effect of the export to the economy is more than the hindrance of the import to the economy.

关 键 词：对外贸易 经济增长 空间面板 溢出效应 间接效应 

分 类 号：F2[经济管理—国民经济]