基于AMF-HXA的湖南省城乡居民收入差异研究  

Using AMF-HXA for Difference of Residents’ Income between Urban and Rural Areas of Hunan Province

作　　者：柏泽伟 文欣薇 刘深 李雅芝 王访[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南农业大学信息与智能科学技术学院,湖南 长沙

出　　处：《统计学与应用》2020年第1期26-38,共13页Statistical and Application

基　　金：本文由湖南农业大学大学生创新基金(XCX18007)和湖南省研究生科研创新项目(CX20190527)资助。

摘　　要：随着湖南省经济的飞速发展,我省城乡人均收入的差距越来越明显。收入的不均衡不仅体现了地区经济发展的差异,另一方面也反映了我国改革开放进程中城乡发展的不同步。利用仿多重分形高度互相关分析,以湖南省14个市州的城镇、农村的人均收入数据为研究对象,研究了人均收入的波动差异性及互相关性。其后并利用灰色预测模型对各市州城乡收入进行了预测。结果表明:发达地区的城镇间人均收入的波动差异小,而贫困地区的城镇间的波动具有较大差异;分别对于城镇和乡村,不同区域之间的互相关性显著;灰色预测模型拟合效果显著。这些结论为探寻湖南省城乡人均收入的相互影响提供了一个新视角。With the rapid economic development of Hunan province, the per capita disposable income gap between urban and rural areas is becoming more and more obvious. The income imbalance not only reflects the difference of regional economic development, but also reflects the asynchronous development of urban and rural areas in the process of China’s reform and opening up. By using analogous multifractal height cross-correlation analysis (AMF-HXA), we study the per capita disposable income of difference and the cross correlation of the 14 cities in Hunan province. After that, by using the grey forecasting model, we forecast the income of urban and rural areas respectively. The results show that the fluctuation of per capita disposable income is small between cities and towns in developed areas, while that is large in poor areas. There is significant cross-correlation between the different regions we divided for both urban areas and rural areas. The fitting effect of grey prediction model is remarkable. These conclusions provide a new per-spective for exploring the interaction between urban and rural per capita income in Hunan province.

关 键 词：仿多重分形高度互相关分析 人均收入 灰色预测 

分 类 号：F32[经济管理—产业经济]