初婚年龄为什么推迟了?  

Why Is the Age of First Marriage Delayed?

作　　者：王芝儒 饶嘉雯 章贵军[1] 

机构地区：[1]江西财经大学,统计学院,江西 南昌

出　　处：《统计学与应用》2021年第4期620-633,共14页Statistical and Application

摘　　要：进入21世纪以来,我国城乡居民平均初婚年龄呈现出不断推迟的趋势,初婚年龄变化的背后有着怎样的影响因素和作用机制,是一个值得探讨的问题。文章通过多层次线性模型(HLM)和事件史分析(EHA)中的对数正态(Log-Normal)模型,从个人和社会两个层面分析了初婚年龄推迟的原因。结果显示:个人及父母教育程度对每个群体的初婚年龄都有显著影响,并且对女性影响较大,个人收入的提升会促进个人推迟初婚年龄,但家庭经济地位的提升会抑制子女推迟初婚年龄;同时,居民对政府医疗卫生、住房保障以及公共文体政策的满意程度对居民总体的初婚年龄延迟也有着显著的抑制作用,但对政府社会管理和城乡基础设施政策的满意程度则会显著地延缓居民的初婚年龄。而分地区的分析则表明影响初婚年龄的因素存在地区差异性,东部地区居民的初婚年龄要明显高于西部地区和中部地区的居民,住房条件的改善有利用抑制东部地区居民推迟初婚年龄,而个人收入的增加则会显著推迟西部地区和中部地区居民初婚年龄。研究同时表明,影响居民初婚年龄的因素推迟的促进作用都是要大于其抑制作用,总体而言,初婚年龄还处于不断推迟的趋势之中。Since the beginning of the 21st century, the average age of first marriage of urban and rural residents in China has shown a trend of continuous delay. What are the influencing factors and mechanisms behind the change of first marriage age is worth discussing. This paper analyzes the reasons for the delay of the age of first marriage from both individual and social levels through the multi-level linear model (HLM) and the log normal model of event history analysis (EHA). The results show that: the education level of individuals and parents has a significant impact on the age of first marriage of each group, and has a greater impact on women. The increase of personal income will promote individuals to delay the age of first marriage, but the improvement of family economic status will inhibit children’s delay of first marriage age. At the same time, residents’ satisfaction with the government’s medical and health, housing security and public sports policies has a significant impact on the residents’ first marriage age. However, satisfaction with the government’s social management and urban and rural infrastructure policies can significantly delay the first marriage age of residents. The first marriage age of the residents in the eastern region is significantly higher than that in the western and central regions. The improvement of housing conditions can inhibit the delay of the first marriage age of the residents in the eastern region, while the increase of personal income will significantly delay the first marriage age of the residents in the western and central regions. At the same time, the research also shows that the promotion effect of the factors influencing the first marriage age of residents is greater than its inhibition effect. Generally speaking, the first marriage age is still in the trend of continuous delay.

关 键 词：初婚年龄 HLM分析 事件史分析 对数正态模型 

分 类 号：C91[经济管理]