基于时间序列分析的新疆红枣产量预测  

Prediction of Xinjiang Jujube Yield Based on Time Series Analysis

作　　者：苏晓燕 桂晓蕾 程倩 王莹 刘家琪 

机构地区：[1]塔里木大学信息工程学院,新疆 阿拉尔

出　　处：《统计学与应用》2023年第6期1606-1614,共9页Statistical and Application

摘　　要：为了有效提高新疆红枣产量的预测精度,文章构建了符合红枣产量的预测模型。运用GM模型与ARIMA模型分别对新疆红枣产量进行预测,并根据二者模型特点建立了基于灰色理论与时间序列的组合预测模型对新疆红枣产量进行了预测。根据预测结果发现,基于灰色理论与时间序列的组合模型的预测精度高,表明了基于灰色理论与时间序列的组合模型在新疆红枣产量预测方面有较高的准确性。In order to effectively improve the prediction accuracy of Xinjiang jujube yield, a prediction model suitable for jujube yield was constructed in this paper. The GM model and ARIMA model were used to predict the yield of Xinjiang jujube, and a combination prediction model based on grey theory and time series was established according to the characteristics of the two models to predict the yield of Xinjiang jujube. According to the prediction results, it was found that the combination mod-el based on grey theory and time series had high prediction accuracy, which indicates that the com-bination model based on grey theory and time series has high accuracy in predicting the yield of Xinjiang jujube.

关 键 词：时间序列 灰色理论 组合模型 产量预测 

分 类 号：TS2[轻工技术与工程—食品科学与工程]