人口结构变动对就业形势的影响研究  

Research on the Impact of Changes in Population Structure on Employment Situation

作　　者：杨陈陈 罗瑾萱 

机构地区：[1]天津商业大学理学院,天津

出　　处：《统计学与应用》2024年第2期284-296,共13页Statistical and Application

摘　　要：纵观历史,人口问题当属世界关注前列,人口转变易引发多种社会问题,就业困难首当其冲。为增加就业人口,本文将人口结构作为一个影响因素进行研究,选取中国二十三年人口子结构与就业数据,通过向量自回归的方法,对两者做相关分析,建立了就业人口与人口自然结构、就业与人口社会经济结构的VAR模型以及LSTM模型,分析人口结构对就业的影响,对人口子结构与就业之间的关系做实证研究,并给出关于如何改善人口子结构进而增加就业人口的建议。Throughout history, population issues have been at the forefront of the world’s attention. Demographic transition can easily lead to a variety of social problems, with employment difficulties bearing the brunt. In order to increase the employed population, this article studies the population structure as an influencing factor, selects China’s 23-year population substructure and employment data, conducts correlation analysis on the two through the vector autoregression method, and establishes the relationship between the employed population and the natural population. The VAR model and LSTM model of structure, employment and population socioeconomic structure analyze the impact of population structure on employment, conduct empirical research on the relationship between population substructure and employment, and give suggestions for improving the population structure.

关 键 词：人口结构 就业人口 平稳性检验 VAR模型 LSTM模型 

分 类 号：C92[社会学—人口学]