中国地方财政是否可持续  

Whether China’s Local Finance Is Sustainable

作　　者：江萌萌 

机构地区：[1]四川大学经济学院,四川 成都

出　　处：《可持续发展》2022年第4期1103-1114,共12页Sustainable Development

摘　　要：我国从本世纪初开始进入老龄化社会,并在2010年开始加快老龄化速度。这是国际社会发展的普遍趋势,也是今后一段时间内我国面临的基本国情。老龄化给我国带来了深远且复杂的社会影响,促使政府对体制机制进行调整和变革,其中就包括地方政府财政收支这一方面。本文首先构建了一个OLG模型,从理论层面探讨了财政可持续性和老龄化之间的关联,然后基于2011~2019年30个省级行政区的面板数据,实证检验了这一作用机制。研究表明,当前阶段的人口老龄化并没有使得地方政府财政可持续性降低,这一结论在替换关键解释变量和更改样本容量后依旧显著。本文认为要继续完善我国的社会养老保险机制,挖掘人口老龄化带来的新经济增长点,并减轻其负面影响和社会负担。具体可以从改进财政制度设计、适当延长退休年龄、提高社会养老保障水平和扶持老龄产业发展等方面加以推进。China began to enter the aging society at the beginning of this century, and has accelerated the rate of aging since 2010. This is a general trend in the development of the international community, and it is also the basic national conditions that our country will face in the coming period of time. Aging has brought far-reaching and complex social impacts to our country, prompting the government to adjust and reform the system and mechanism, including the local government’s fiscal revenue and expenditure. This paper first constructs an OLG model to explore the relationship between fiscal sustainability and aging from a theoretical level, and then empirically tests this mechanism based on panel data of 30 provincial-level administrative regions from 2011 to 2019. The study shows that the current stage of population aging does not reduce the fiscal sustainability of local governments, and this conclusion is still significant after replacing key explanatory variables and changing the sample size. This paper believes that it is necessary to continue to improve my country’s social endowment insurance mechanism, to tap new economic growth points brought about by population aging, and to reduce its negative impact and social burden. Specifically, it can be promoted by improving the design of the financial system, appropriately extending the retirement age, improving the level of social pension security, and supporting the development of the aging industry.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 财政可持续性 延迟退休 经济增长 财政缺口 

分 类 号：F810[经济管理—财政学]