上证综指的波动性对实体经济增长的影响  

The Impact of the Volatility of the Shanghai Composite Index on the Growth of the Real Economy

作　　者：李燕玲 

机构地区：[1]北京工商大学经济学院,北京

出　　处：《可持续发展》2023年第3期914-922,共9页Sustainable Development

摘　　要：党的十九届五中全会提出,坚持把发展经济着力点放在实体经济上。实体经济是一国国民经济与社会发展的基础,股票市场与实体经济紧密相联,股票市场价格波动会直接或间接地影响实体经济的增长,因此研究股票市场价格的波动性对实体经济增长的影响很有必要。本文基于协整分析和Granger因果检验研究了股票市场价格的波动性对实体经济增长的长期和短期影响,研究结果表明上证综合指数与实体经济增长之间有相关关系,从长期均衡结果来看,上证综合指数的波动性可以反映实体经济的发展趋势;从短期波动结果来看,上证综合指数的波动性与我国实体经济之间不具有因果关系。我国股票市场尚不成熟,政府应明确自己在资本市场的角色,完善股票市场规则,引导投资者理性投资,推动金融行业支持实体经济的发展。The Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China proposed that the focus of economic development should be on the real economy. The real economy is the foundation of a country’s national economy and social development, and the stock market is closely linked to the real economy. Stock market price fluctuations can directly or indirectly affect the growth of the real economy. Therefore, it is necessary to study the impact of stock market price volatility on the growth of the real economy. Based on co integration analysis and Granger causality test, this paper studies the long-term and short-term effects of stock market price volatility on real economy growth. The research results show that there is a correlation between the Shanghai Composite Index and real economy growth. From the long-term equilibrium results, the volatility of the Shanghai Composite Index can reflect the development trend of the real economy;from the short-term volatility results, there is no causal relationship between the volatility of the Shanghai Composite Index and China’s real economy. China’s stock market is not yet mature, and the government should clarify its role in the capital market, improve the rules of the stock market, guide investors to invest rationally, and promote the financial industry to support the development of the real economy.

关 键 词：上证综合指数 实体经济 协整检验 GRANGER因果检验 

分 类 号：F83[经济管理—金融学]