人口结构对中国家庭储蓄率的影响——基于2005~2020年的省际面板数据  

The Effect of Demographic Structure on the Household Saving Rate in China—Based on Inter-Provincial Panel Data from 2005 to 2020

作　　者：杨苏璇 杨润高 

机构地区：[1]云南财经大学经济学院,云南 昆明

出　　处：《可持续发展》2023年第3期1035-1044,共10页Sustainable Development

摘　　要：目前我国人口发展具有结构老龄化的趋势,而储蓄的行为效应在不同的年龄阶段具有差异性。本文基于生命周期理论构建了相关模型和指标,使用省际面板数据,实证分析了我国人口年龄结构变化对家庭储蓄率的影响。研究结论:在没有时间效应时,少儿抚养比对家庭储蓄率的影响模糊,老年抚养比的提高会增加家庭储蓄率;在加入时间效应时,少儿抚养比和老年抚养比的提高均会降低家庭储蓄率。本文对所得结果进行多种估计方法检验,发现其基本稳健。At present, the population development of our country has the tendency of aging structure, and individual consumption and saving behavior at different ages are also different. Based on the life cycle theory and the selected index of correlation analysis, this paper empirically analyzes the in-fluence of the change of population age structure on the household savings rate by using the in-ter-provincial panel data. The results show that when there is no time effect, the effect of child dependency ratio on household savings rate is vague, and the increase of the elderly dependency ratio will increase the household savings rate. When the time effect is included, the increase of the child dependency ratio and the elderly dependency ratio will reduce the household savings rate. This paper gives a reasonable explanation and analysis, and through a variety of estimation methods, it is found that the conclusion is basically robust.

关 键 词：生命周期假说 老龄化 人口结构 储蓄率 

分 类 号：F83[经济管理—金融学]