基于杜邦分析法下对增收不增利绩效影响的研究——以长城汽车为例  

Research on the Impact of Increasing Revenue without Increasing Profits Based on DuPont Analysis—Taking Great Wall Motors as an Example

作　　者：刘佳钰 程宇翔 胡思宇 彭兴莲[1] 徐梅[1] 

机构地区：[1]南昌大学科学技术学院,江西 南昌

出　　处：《可持续发展》2024年第3期729-744,共16页Sustainable Development

摘　　要：长城汽车作为中国早期的汽车品牌,传统车型的销量一直处于领先地位。现阶段对长城汽车公司在双碳的驱动下对企业战略转型中出现的增收不增利现状进行研究。本文以长城汽车股份有限公司(简称:长城汽车)为研究对象,利用杜邦分析法和DCF模型对长城汽车进行分析和验证。首先描述长城汽车增收不增利的现状,进而以杜邦因素分析其原因,接着用DCF模型估值计算长城汽车的发展经营情况和预测未来四年的现金流量,通过现金流折算为现有价值,发现在DCF模型下的长城汽车的评估结果小于市场的现时价值,现有市场价值被高估了,投资者更看好其未来价值。As an early automobile brand in China, Great Wall Motors has always been in the leading position in sales of traditional models. At this stage, we are studying the current situation of increasing revenue but not increasing profits in the strategic transformation of Great Wall Motor Company driven by dual carbon. This article takes Great Wall Motor Co., Ltd. (referred to as Great Wall Motor) as the research object, and uses the DuPont analysis method and DCF model to analyze and verify Great Wall Motor. First, we describe the current situation of Great Wall Motors increasing revenue but not profits and then analyze the reasons using DuPont factors. Then we use the DCF model valuation to calculate the development and operation of Great Wall Motors and predict the cash flow in the next four years, and convert the cash flow into the current value. It is found that the evaluation result of Great Wall Motors under the DCF model is less than the current market value. The current market value is overvalued, and investors are more optimistic about its future value.

关 键 词：增收不增利 杜邦分析 净资产收益率 DCF估值模型 长城汽车 

分 类 号：F42[经济管理—产业经济]