供电系统用户可靠性基于幂函数的增长模型研究  

Research on Reliability Growth Models Based on Power Function of Power Supply System

作　　者：赵彬 史清 

机构地区：[1]国网上海市电力公司市北供电公司,上海 [2]国网上海市电力公司检修公司,上海

出　　处：《智能电网（汉斯）》2018年第5期409-418,共10页Smart Grid

摘　　要：本文提出了供电系统用户供电可靠性基于幂函数的可靠性增长模型及其验证方法。以城市10 kV供电系统为研究对象,建立了供电可靠率和用户停电系数的增长模型。给出了供电系统可靠性增长模型待定参数的确定方法和增长模型的验证方法,以及全国城市10 kV和国家电网城市10 kV供电系统的供电可靠率和用户停电系数的增长模型的待定参数计算结果和验证结果。结果表明,全国城市10 kV和国家电网城市10 kV供电系统用户供电可靠性的变化规律符合供电可靠率与用户停电系数基于幂函数的可靠性增长模型,全国城市10 kV和国家电网城市10 kV供电系统的用户供电可靠性呈增长趋势。This paper proposes a reliability growth model and verification method based on power function for power system reliability. Taking the urban 10 kV power supply system as the research object, the growth models of power supply reliability rate and customer interruption coefficient are es-tablished. The methods for determining pending parameters and verification growth model, and the pending parameter calculation and fitting test results of power supply reliability rate and cus-tomer interruption coefficient growth model for State Grid and its subordinate regional power grid city 10 kV power supply system are given in this paper. The results show that the power supply reliability of users in 10 kV national cities and State Grid is increasing. The variation law of power supply reliability rate and customer interruption coefficient is in accordance with the reliability growth model based on power function.

关 键 词：10 KV供电系统 供电可靠性 供电可靠率 可靠性增长模型 

分 类 号：TM7[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]