基于可拓模型的地方政府财政风险预警研究  

A Study of Local Government Financial Risk Warning Based on Extenics Model

作　　者：史胜安[1] 田宝坤 王瑀琦 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学法政系,河北保定 [2]河北省科技工程学校,河北保定

出　　处：《服务科学和管理》2018年第6期197-204,共8页Service Science and Management

基　　金：河北省社会科学基金项目(积极财政政策下地方政府财政风险评估研究) (HB13GL014)。

摘　　要：随着近年来京津冀协同发展的逐步深化,本区域内的政府合作不断加强,但由于各地经济发展、财政收支安排的不同,政府间存在不同程度的财政风险。不仅成为地方政府履行政府职能的制约因素,而且阻碍了京津冀一体化的发展进程。因此,关注和研究地方财政风险,建立预警机制,有利于防范和化解京津冀地区政府财政风险,能够使政府在财政风险可能发生的萌芽阶段采取有效措施,避免进一步导致财政危机的出现。本文通过选取动态、静态的财政风险指标,利用可拓学模型对京津冀三地区的数据进行分析,并针对结果提出相应的对策。With the gradual deepening of the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei in recent years, the government cooperation in this region has been constantly strengthened. However, due to the different economic development and fiscal revenue and expenditure arrangements, there are different levels of financial risks between governments. It not only becomes a constraint factor for local governments to perform government functions, but also hinders the development process of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei integration. Therefore, studying local financial risks, establishing an early warning mechanism to prevent and defuse financial risks in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region can enable the government to take effective measures in the initial stage of possible fiscal risks to avoid further financial crises. By selecting dynamic and static financial risk indexes and using extenics model, this paper analyzes the data of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and puts forward corresponding countermeasures according to the results.

关 键 词：京津冀 地方财政 风险预警 可拓模型 

分 类 号：F2[经济管理—国民经济]