中国对CPTPP成员国机电产品出口贸易影响因素及潜力研究  

Research on the Influencing Factors and Potential of China’s Export Trade of Mechanical and Electrical Products to CPTPP Member Countries

作　　者：张斌[1] 杨弘 

机构地区：[1]东华大学旭日工商管理学院,上海

出　　处：《世界经济探索》2022年第4期278-289,共12页World Economic Research

摘　　要：自2018年12月30日全面与进步跨太平洋伙伴关系协定(CPTPP)签署以来,中方多次在公开场合表示“积极考虑加入CPTPP”。在此背景下,机电产品作为中国出口创汇的主要项目,在我国与CPTPP成员国的出口贸易中占据着不可或缺的重要地位。因此,本文选取了2000~2021年机电产品出口CPTPP成员国的贸易数据,首先分别从出口规模、结构和国别3个维度展开描述性分析;其次运用时变随机前沿引力模型进行实证研究得出影响因素;再次依据贸易非效率模型得到中国机电产品出口CPTPP成员国的贸易效率;然后得出中国对CPTPP成员国机电产品出口的贸易潜力;最后提出相应的政策建议。Since the signing of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) on December 30, 2018, China has repeatedly stated in public that it is “actively considering joining the CPTPP”. In this context, mechanical and electrical products, as the main project of China’s export of foreign exchange, occupy an indispensable and important position in China’s export trade with CPTPP member countries. Therefore, this paper selects the trade data of CPTPP member countries exporting mechanical and electrical products from 2000 to 2021, and firstly conducts a descriptive analysis from the three dimensions of export scale, structure and country. Secondly, the time-varying stochastic frontier gravity model is used for empirical study to get the influencing factors. Thirdly, according to the trade inefficiency model, the trade efficiency of China’s mechanical and electrical products exported to CPTPP member countries is obtained. Then, the trade potential of mechanical and electrical products exported by China to CPTPP member countries is obtained. Finally, the corresponding policy suggestions are put forward.

关 键 词：CPTPP 机电产品 随机前沿引力模型 出口潜力 

分 类 号：F75[经济管理—国际贸易]