Modeling Expected Failure Considering Repair Time and Degradation: A Rail System Case Study  

作　　者：Maryam Hamidi Atefe Sedaghat Amir Gharehgozli Ferenc Szidarovszky Maryam Hamidi;Atefe Sedaghat;Amir Gharehgozli;Ferenc Szidarovszky(Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Lamar University, Beaumont, TX, USA;Department of Systems and Operations Management, California State University, Northridge, CA, USA;Department of Mathematics, Corvinus University of Budapest, Fő,vá,mté,r 8, Budapest, Hungary)

机构地区：[1]Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Lamar University, Beaumont, TX, USA [2]Department of Systems and Operations Management, California State University, Northridge, CA, USA [3]Department of Mathematics, Corvinus University of Budapest, Fő,vá,mté,r 8, Budapest, Hungary

出　　处：《Journal of Transportation Technologies》2024年第2期236-254,共19页交通科技期刊（英文）

摘　　要：The repeated failures of any equipment or systems are modeled as a renewal process. The management needs an assessment of the number of future failures to allocate the resources needed for fast repairs. Based on the idea of expectation by conditioning, special Volterra-type integral equations are derived for general types of repairs, considering the length of repair and reduced degradation of the idle object. In addition to minimal repair and failure replacement, partial repairs are also discussed when the repair results in reduction of the number of future failures or decreases the effective age of the object. Numerical integration-based algorithm and simulation study are performed to solve the resulting integral equation. Since the geometry degradation in different dimensions of a rail track and controlling and maintaining defects are of importance, a numerical example using the rail industry data is conducted. Expected number of failures of different failure type modes in rail track is calculated within a two-year interval. Results show that within a two-year period, anticipated occurrences of cross level failures, surface failures, and DPI failures are 2.4, 3.8, and 5.8, respectively.The repeated failures of any equipment or systems are modeled as a renewal process. The management needs an assessment of the number of future failures to allocate the resources needed for fast repairs. Based on the idea of expectation by conditioning, special Volterra-type integral equations are derived for general types of repairs, considering the length of repair and reduced degradation of the idle object. In addition to minimal repair and failure replacement, partial repairs are also discussed when the repair results in reduction of the number of future failures or decreases the effective age of the object. Numerical integration-based algorithm and simulation study are performed to solve the resulting integral equation. Since the geometry degradation in different dimensions of a rail track and controlling and maintaining defects are of importance, a numerical example using the rail industry data is conducted. Expected number of failures of different failure type modes in rail track is calculated within a two-year interval. Results show that within a two-year period, anticipated occurrences of cross level failures, surface failures, and DPI failures are 2.4, 3.8, and 5.8, respectively.

关 键 词：Renewal Theory Expected Number of Failures Partial Repair Minimal Repair 

分 类 号：O17[理学—数学]