Mathematical Modelling of the COVID-19 Epidemic in Northern Ireland in 2020  

作　　者：Peter A. Hall Gabor Kiss Tilman Kuhn Salissou Moutari Ellen Patterson Emily Smith Peter A. Hall;Gabor Kiss;Tilman Kuhn;Salissou Moutari;Ellen Patterson;Emily Smith(Mathematical Science Research Centre, School of Mathematics & Physics, Queen’s University Belfast, Belfast, Northern Ireland, United Kingdom;School of Biological Sciences, Queen’s University Belfast, Belfast, Northern Ireland, United Kingdom;Heidelberg Institute of Global Health (HIGH), Heidelberg University Hospital, Heidelberg, Germany)

机构地区：[1]Mathematical Science Research Centre, School of Mathematics & Physics, Queen’s University Belfast, Belfast, Northern Ireland, United Kingdom [2]School of Biological Sciences, Queen’s University Belfast, Belfast, Northern Ireland, United Kingdom [3]Heidelberg Institute of Global Health (HIGH), Heidelberg University Hospital, Heidelberg, Germany

出　　处：《Open Journal of Modelling and Simulation》2021年第2期91-110,共20页建模与仿真（英文）

摘　　要：In this study, we investigate the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in Northern Ireland from 1^st March 2020 up to 25^th December 2020, using sever</span><span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">al copies of a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (<i></span><i><span style="font-family:Verdana;">SEIR</span></i><span style="font-family:Verdana;"></i>) compart</span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">mental model, and compare it to </span></span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;">a </span></span></span><span><span><span style="font-family:""><span style="font-family:Verdana;">detailed publicly available dataset. We split the data into 10 time intervals and fit the models on the consecutive intervals to the cumulative number of confirmed positive cases on each interval. Using the fitted parameter estimates, we also provide estimates of the reproduction number.</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> We also discuss the limitations and possible extensions of the employed model.In this study, we investigate the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in Northern Ireland from 1^st March 2020 up to 25^th December 2020, using sever</span><span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">al copies of a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (<i></span><i><span style="font-family:Verdana;">SEIR</span></i><span style="font-family:Verdana;"></i>) compart</span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">mental model, and compare it to </span></span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;">a </span></span></span><span><span><span style="font-family:""><span style="font-family:Verdana;">detailed publicly available dataset. We split the data into 10 time intervals and fit the models on the consecutive intervals to the cumulative number of confirmed positive cases on each interval. Using the fitted parameter estimates, we also provide estimates of the reproduction number.</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> We also discuss the limitations and possible extensions of the employed model.

关 键 词：PANDEMIC EPIDEMIC SARS-CoV-2 COVID-19 Compartmental Model SEIR Model Basic Reproduction Number Effective Reproduction Number Parameter Estimates Fitted Model 

分 类 号：O17[理学—数学]